League Two
— China
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:00 •
Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base
Expected Goals
3.23 (league 1.24)
2.91 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.6% | 16.0% | 29.9% |
best score tips
3 - 2
5.1%
3 - 3
5.0%
2 - 2
4.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Guangdong Mingtu | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Shenzhen 2028 | 0 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Shenzhen 2028 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 177 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shenzhen 2028 -17.4, Guangdong Mingtu -14.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Shenzhen 2028
vs
Guangdong Mingtu
Elo gapShenzhen 2028 +177
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo2978.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2978.1
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1560.2 | 1417.9 |
| Form Elo | 1539.9 | 1400.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.6 | 1473.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1490.2 | 1411.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1543.8 | 1476.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.4 | -14.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Shenzhen 2028 last-5 Elo change: -17.4; Guangdong Mingtu last-5 Elo change: -14.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 25% | 17% |
| Attack | 38% | 31% |
| Defense | 46% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.3 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 100% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Shenzhen 2028DDLD
Guangdong MingtuDLDL
League goals
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Shenzhen 2028 | Guangdong Mingtu |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 60.5% | 39.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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