League Two
— China
Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 11:30 •
Huadu Stadium
Expected Goals
0.60 (league 1.24)
0.96 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.3% | 34.8% | 42.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.8%
0 - 1
20.1%
1 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Jiangxi Liansheng | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guangdong Mingtu | 0 | 20.8% | 20.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.6% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Jiangxi Liansheng carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 75 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Guangdong Mingtu -20.2, Jiangxi Liansheng -15.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Guangdong Mingtu
vs
Jiangxi Liansheng
Elo gapJiangxi Liansheng +75
Home / draw / away31% / 21% / 48%
Expected home share39%
Combined Elo2933.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2933.7
Elo home share
39%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1411.9 | 1521.8 |
| Form Elo | 1392 | 1505.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1463.3 | 1543.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1413 | 1577.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1463.6 | 1566.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.2 | -15.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Guangdong Mingtu last-5 Elo change: -20.2; Jiangxi Liansheng last-5 Elo change: -15.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 33% |
| Attack | 42% | 50% |
| Defense | 25% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Draws | 50% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Loses | 50% | 67% | 60% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
Guangdong MingtuDLDLL
Jiangxi LianshengDDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guangdong Mingtu | Jiangxi Liansheng |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 38.5% | 61.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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