1. Division — Kazakhstan
Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 10:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Ekibastuz

—

Kaspij Aktau 2

Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.96) 4.66 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
0.1% 1.1% 66.4%
best score tips
0 - 4
17.7%
0 - 5
16.5%
0 - 3
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
Kaspij Aktau 2
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ekibastuz 0 0.9% 4.2% 9.8% 15.2% 17.7% 16.5%
1 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Kaspij Aktau 2 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 44 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ekibastuz -16.2, Kaspij Aktau 2 -2.7.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Ekibastuz Elo 1418.2 · -16.2
vs
Kaspij Aktau 2 Elo 1497.3 · -2.7
Elo gapKaspij Aktau 2 +44
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2915.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2915.5
Elo home share 44%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Ekibastuz Kaspij Aktau 2
Overall Elo1418.21497.3
Form Elo1382.81491.6
Home / Away Elo1476.21500.1
Attack Elo1451.81498.7
Defense Elo1271.81499.7
Last 5 Elo change-16.2-2.7

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ekibastuz last-5 Elo change: -16.2; Kaspij Aktau 2 last-5 Elo change: -2.7.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEkibastuzKaspij Aktau 2
Played22
Form0%33%
Attack0%20%
Defense53%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)0 | 03 | 1.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 3.53 | 1.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ekibastuz Kaspij Aktau 2
HATHAT
Played022112
Wins—0%0%0%0%0%
Draws—0%0%100%100%100%
Loses—100%100%0%0%0%
EkibastuzLL
Kaspij Aktau 2DD

League goals

Metric Ekibastuz Kaspij Aktau 2
HATHAT
GF total000123
GF avg0.00.00.01.02.01.5
GA total077123
GA avg0.03.53.51.02.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEkibastuzKaspij Aktau 2
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.50%100%100%100%
1.50%100%50%50%
2.50%100%0%0%
3.50%50%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEkibastuzKaspij Aktau 2
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score022000

Penalties

MetricEkibastuzKaspij Aktau 2
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricEkibastuzKaspij Aktau 2
Wins00
Draws02
Losses20

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins————
Biggest losses—4-0——
Goals For0012
Goals Against0412

Model comparison

MetricEkibastuzKaspij Aktau 2
Form0%100%
Att0%100%
Def30%70%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total30.0%70.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Ekibastuz vs Kaspij Aktau 2
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Ekibastuz
vs
Kaspij Aktau 2
1. Division • Kazakhstan • Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 10:00 • Venue TBA
Expected goals
0.05
Ekibastuz xG League Avg: 1.96
Total
4.71
4.66
Kaspij Aktau 2 xG League Avg: 1.50
1x2 probabilities
Home
0.1%
Draw
1.1%
Away
66.4%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 4
17.7%
Tip
0 - 5
16.5%
Tip
0 - 3
15.2%
More chances
1.5+
75%
Chance
2.5+
53%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
#Ekibastuz #KaspijAktau2 #1Division #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Ekibastuz = 0.05 (league 1.96), Kaspij Aktau 2 = 4.66 (league 1.50)

Kaspij Aktau 2
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ekibastuz 0 0.9% 4.2% 9.8% 15.2% 17.7% 16.5%
1 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 0.1% · Draw 1.1% · Away win 66.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1