Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Mourneview Park
Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.48)
2.16 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 15.3% | 19.5% | 62.9% |
best score tips
0 - 2
10.5%
1 - 2
9.9%
0 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Carrick Rangers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Glenavon FC | 0 | 4.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Glenavon FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Glenavon FC +17.3, Carrick Rangers +16.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Glenavon FC
vs
Carrick Rangers
Elo gapGlenavon FC +34
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2846.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2846.4
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1422.6 | 1423.8 |
| Form Elo | 1431.7 | 1432.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1462.9 | 1468.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1427.4 | 1501.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1465.6 | 1380.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +17.3 | +16.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Glenavon FC last-5 Elo change: +17.3; Carrick Rangers last-5 Elo change: +16.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 18% | 100% |
| Defense | 45% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 33% | 11% | 22% | 37% | 39% | 38% |
| Draws | 6% | 16% | 11% | 21% | 22% | 22% |
| Loses | 61% | 74% | 68% | 42% | 39% | 41% |
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Carrick RangersWWWDLLLLWLLWLLLLDDLDLDWWWWWDWDLLWWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 17 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 61 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 28 | 38 | 66 | 31 | 25 | 56 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 57% | 89% | 84% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 54% | 38% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 22% | 24% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 6-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-7 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Glenavon FC | Carrick Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 13% | 88% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.70 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.72 @ Pinnacle
Away2.35 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.12 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.81 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.98 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Glenavon FC
vs
Carrick Rangers
Expected goals
0.94
Glenavon FC xG
League Avg: 1.48
Total
3.11
2.16
Carrick Rangers xG
League Avg: 1.18
1x2 probabilities
Home
15.3%
Draw
19.5%
Away
62.9%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 2
10.5%
Tip
1 - 2
9.9%
Tip
0 - 1
9.7%
More chances
1.5+
81%
Chance
2.5+
57%
Chance
3.5+
41%
Chance
BTTS
73%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Glenavon FC = 0.94 (league 1.48), Carrick Rangers = 2.16 (league 1.18)
| Carrick Rangers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Glenavon FC | 0 | 4.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.3% · Draw 19.5% · Away win 62.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1