US Open Cup — USA
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 23:00 • Sports Illustrated Stadium
Not Started

New York Red Bulls

—

New York City FC

Expected Goals
4.65 (league 1.29) 6.46 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.9% 6.2% 12.3%
best score tips
4 - 5
2.7%
5 - 5
2.5%
3 - 5
2.3%
Score & goals probability table
New York City FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
New York Red Bulls 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
2 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5%
3 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.1% 1.8% 2.3%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1% 2.7%
5 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 2.5%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

New York City FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: New York Red Bulls 0.0, New York City FC 0.0.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
New York Red Bulls Elo 1450.4 · 0.0
vs
New York City FC Elo 1568.3 · 0.0
Elo gapNew York City FC +83
Home / draw / away30% / 21% / 49%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3018.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3018.7
Elo home share 38%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric New York Red Bulls New York City FC
Overall Elo1450.41568.3
Form Elo1450.41568.3
Home / Away Elo15041548.2
Attack Elo1509.61565.8
Defense Elo1462.61568.2
Last 5 Elo change0.00.0

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. New York Red Bulls last-5 Elo change: 0.0; New York City FC last-5 Elo change: 0.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNew York Red BullsNew York City FC
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack17%28%
Defense94%89%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 35 | 5
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 12 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

8.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

8.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

70%
FT probability

BTTS

100%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric New York Red Bulls New York City FC
HATHAT
Played101011
Wins100%—100%—100%100%
Draws0%—0%—0%0%
Loses0%—0%—0%0%
New York Red BullsW
New York City FCW

League goals

Metric New York Red Bulls New York City FC
HATHAT
GF total303055
GF avg3.00.03.00.05.05.0
GA total101022
GA avg1.00.01.00.02.02.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNew York Red BullsNew York City FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%100%
1.5100%0%100%100%
2.5100%0%100%0%
3.50%0%100%0%
4.50%0%100%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNew York Red BullsNew York City FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricNew York Red BullsNew York City FC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricNew York Red BullsNew York City FC
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-1——2-5
Biggest losses————
Goals For3005
Goals Against1002

Model comparison

MetricNew York Red BullsNew York City FC
Form50%50%
Att38%63%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h20%80%
Goals33%67%
Total41.8%58.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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