US Open Cup — USA
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 02:00 • PayPal Park
Not Started

San Jose Earthquakes

—

Minnesota United FC

Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.29) 0.05 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
4.6% 90.7% 4.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
90.5%
0 - 1
4.5%
1 - 0
4.5%
Score & goals probability table
Minnesota United FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
San Jose Earthquakes 0 90.5% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

San Jose Earthquakes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 78 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: San Jose Earthquakes +7.8, Minnesota United FC +2.4.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
San Jose Earthquakes Elo 1604 · +7.8
vs
Minnesota United FC Elo 1561.5 · +2.4
Elo gapSan Jose Earthquakes +78
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3165.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3165.5
Elo home share 61%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric San Jose Earthquakes Minnesota United FC
Overall Elo16041561.5
Form Elo1639.11572.3
Home / Away Elo1555.71526
Attack Elo1666.71526.9
Defense Elo1509.71545.1
Last 5 Elo change+7.8+2.4

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. San Jose Earthquakes last-5 Elo change: +7.8; Minnesota United FC last-5 Elo change: +2.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack11%6%
Defense100%100%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 21 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)0 | 00 | 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

0.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

43%
FT probability

2.5+

30%
FT probability

3.5+

21%
FT probability

BTTS

46%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

4-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric San Jose Earthquakes Minnesota United FC
HATHAT
Played101011
Wins100%—100%—100%100%
Draws0%—0%—0%0%
Loses0%—0%—0%0%
San Jose EarthquakesW
Minnesota United FCW

League goals

Metric San Jose Earthquakes Minnesota United FC
HATHAT
GF total202011
GF avg2.00.02.00.01.01.0
GA total000000
GA avg0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%0%100%0%
1.5100%0%0%0%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets101011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0——0-1
Biggest losses————
Goals For2001
Goals Against0000

Model comparison

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United FC
Form50%50%
Att67%33%
Def0%0%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h7%93%
Goals23%77%
Total36.8%63.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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