Copa Argentina — Argentina
Fri, May 1 2026 • 00:15 • Estadio Ciudad de Caseros
Not Started

Velez Sarsfield

—

Gimnasia Y Tiro

Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.53) 1.25 (league 0.80)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
1.4% 28.9% 69.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
34.0%
0 - 0
27.2%
0 - 2
21.3%
Score & goals probability table
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Velez Sarsfield 0 27.2% 34.0% 21.3% 8.9% 2.8% 0.7%
1 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Velez Sarsfield carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 87 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Velez Sarsfield +10.3, Gimnasia Y Tiro +2.9.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Velez Sarsfield Elo 1552.2 · +10.3
vs
Gimnasia Y Tiro Elo 1500.3 · +2.9
Elo gapVelez Sarsfield +87
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3052.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3052.5
Elo home share 62%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Velez Sarsfield Gimnasia Y Tiro
Overall Elo1552.21500.3
Form Elo1598.61513.4
Home / Away Elo1518.71463.3
Attack Elo1496.61447.8
Defense Elo1616.51582.2
Last 5 Elo change+10.3+2.9

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Velez Sarsfield last-5 Elo change: +10.3; Gimnasia Y Tiro last-5 Elo change: +2.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack31%8%
Defense92%100%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 41 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 10 | 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Velez Sarsfield Gimnasia Y Tiro
HATHAT
Played101011
Wins100%—100%—100%100%
Draws0%—0%—0%0%
Loses0%—0%—0%0%
Velez SarsfieldW
Gimnasia Y TiroW

League goals

Metric Velez Sarsfield Gimnasia Y Tiro
HATHAT
GF total404011
GF avg4.00.04.00.01.01.0
GA total101000
GA avg1.00.01.00.00.00.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%0%
1.5100%0%0%0%
2.5100%0%0%0%
3.5100%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1——0-1
Biggest losses————
Goals For4001
Goals Against1000

Model comparison

MetricVelez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
Form50%50%
Att80%20%
Def0%100%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total65.0%35.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.51 @ Dafabet
Draw4.00 @ Bet365
Away8.10 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.57 @ Betfair
📊

League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Y Tiro