Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.85)
2.16 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.8% | 19.1% | 64.8% |
best score tips
0 - 2
11.3%
0 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Mārupe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| JDFS Alberts | 0 | 4.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
JDFS Alberts carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 124 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: JDFS Alberts -18.8, Mārupe +29.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
JDFS Alberts
vs
Mārupe
Elo gapJDFS Alberts +124
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo3084.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3084.5
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1586.8 | 1497.7 |
| Form Elo | 1565.8 | 1539.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1554.7 | 1496.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1651 | 1517.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.9 | 1557.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.8 | +29.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. JDFS Alberts last-5 Elo change: -18.8; Mārupe last-5 Elo change: +29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 4 |
| Form | 33% | 58% |
| Attack | 22% | 56% |
| Defense | 78% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 10 | 2.5 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 3 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
45%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 67% | 0% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 67% | 33% | 0% | 25% |
JDFS AlbertsLLW
MārupeWWDL
League goals
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 75% | 25% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 67% | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 4-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 2-3 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | JDFS Alberts | Mārupe |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30% | 70% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 48.8% | 51.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
JDFS Alberts
vs
Mārupe
Expected goals
0.86
JDFS Alberts xG
League Avg: 1.85
Total
3.03
2.16
Mārupe xG
League Avg: 1.50
1x2 probabilities
Home
13.8%
Draw
19.1%
Away
64.8%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 2
11.3%
Tip
0 - 1
10.5%
Tip
1 - 2
9.8%
More chances
1.5+
56%
Chance
2.5+
40%
Chance
3.5+
28%
Chance
BTTS
45%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): JDFS Alberts = 0.86 (league 1.85), Mārupe = 2.16 (league 1.50)
| Mārupe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| JDFS Alberts | 0 | 4.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.8% · Draw 19.1% · Away win 64.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1