Sun, Mar 1 2026 • 15:00 •
Campo da Portela
Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.17)
0.65 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.1% | 26.9% | 16.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.9%
2 - 0
12.9%
0 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Benfica Castelo Branco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| UD da Serra | 0 | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 60% |
| Attack | 55% | 100% |
| Defense | 73% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| Wins | 40% | 38% | 39% | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Draws | 60% | 13% | 39% | 10% | 13% | 11% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 22% | 20% | 38% | 28% |
Form: UD da Serra: WDWWLDLWWDDLDDLWDW • Benfica Castelo Branco: DWLLWDWWWLWWWWLLWW
League goals
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 14 | 27 | 24 | 11 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 5 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 61% | 78% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 28% | 50% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 39% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 3-5 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | UD da Serra | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 43.0% | 57.2% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
UD da Serra
vs
Benfica Castelo Branco
Expected goals
1.45
UD da Serra xG
League Avg: 1.17
Total
2.09
0.65
Benfica Castelo Branco xG
League Avg: 1.08
1x2 probabilities
Home
56.1%
Draw
26.9%
Away
16.6%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
17.9%
Tip
2 - 0
12.9%
Tip
0 - 0
12.4%
More chances
1.5+
71%
Chance
2.5+
50%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
64%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): UD da Serra = 1.45 (league 1.17), Benfica Castelo Branco = 0.65 (league 1.08)
| Benfica Castelo Branco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| UD da Serra | 0 | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.1% · Draw 26.9% · Away win 16.6%
vtt 2 , vtd1