Wed, Jan 21 2026 • 17:45 •
AFAS Stadion
Expected Goals
3.89 (league 1.73)
1.55 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | 10.9% | 9.9% |
best score tips
3 - 1
6.6%
4 - 1
6.4%
3 - 2
5.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Excelsior | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 33% | 29% |
| Defense | 52% | 52% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
74%
FT probability
3.5+
53%
FT probability
BTTS
84%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| Wins | 50% | 40% | 44% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
| Draws | 38% | 10% | 22% | 10% | 13% | 11% |
| Loses | 13% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 63% | 56% |
Form: AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLWWWWLLLDLWL • Excelsior: LLLWLWLLWLDLWWLWLD
League goals
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 14 | 33 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 15 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 94% | 78% | 78% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 50% | 28% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 28% | 0% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 92% | 8% |
| Total | 66.2% | 33.8% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw and +1.5 goals
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.35 @ 10Bet
Draw5.90 @ Betano
Away10.25 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.50 @ Betano
Under 2.53.00 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.82 @ 188Bet
No2.25 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
AZ Alkmaar
vs
Excelsior
Expected goals
3.89
AZ Alkmaar xG
League Avg: 1.73
Total
5.43
1.55
Excelsior xG
League Avg: 1.35
1x2 probabilities
Home
59.0%
Draw
10.9%
Away
9.9%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 1
6.6%
Tip
4 - 1
6.4%
Tip
3 - 2
5.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
74%
Chance
3.5+
53%
Chance
BTTS
84%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 3.89 (league 1.73), Excelsior = 1.55 (league 1.35)
| Excelsior | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.0% · Draw 10.9% · Away win 9.9%
vtt 17 , vtd1