Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 17:45 •
Stadion Woudestein
Expected Goals
0.95 (league 1.73)
1.35 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5% | 27.7% | 45.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.5%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| AZ Alkmaar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Excelsior | 0 | 10.0% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 47% | 33% |
| Defense | 67% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 36% | 27% | 32% | 36% | 45% | 41% |
| Draws | 18% | 27% | 23% | 45% | 9% | 27% |
| Loses | 45% | 45% | 45% | 18% | 45% | 32% |
Form: Excelsior: LLLWLWLLWLDLWWLWLDDDDW • AZ Alkmaar: WDWWDDLWWWWLLLDLWLDWLD
League goals
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 12 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 14 | 23 | 37 | 20 | 16 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 77% | 95% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 14% | 18% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 14% | 9% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Excelsior | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 10% | 90% |
| Total | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or AZ Alkmaar
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.25 @ Unibet
Draw3.75 @ Unibet
Away2.22 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.80 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.15 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Pinnacle
No2.28 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Excelsior
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Expected goals
0.95
Excelsior xG
League Avg: 1.73
Total
2.30
1.35
AZ Alkmaar xG
League Avg: 1.35
1x2 probabilities
Home
26.5%
Draw
27.7%
Away
45.6%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
13.5%
Tip
1 - 1
12.9%
Tip
0 - 0
10.0%
More chances
1.5+
81%
Chance
2.5+
57%
Chance
3.5+
41%
Chance
BTTS
75%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Excelsior = 0.95 (league 1.73), AZ Alkmaar = 1.35 (league 1.35)
| AZ Alkmaar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Excelsior | 0 | 10.0% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away win 45.6%
vtt 4 , vtd1