Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 20:00 •
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Expected Goals
0.95 (league 1.51)
1.58 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.6% | 25.3% | 51.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.6%
1 - 1
12.0%
0 - 2
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Madrid | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alaves | 0 | 8.0% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 31% | 46% |
| Defense | 54% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Wins | 50% | 14% | 33% | 86% | 56% | 69% |
| Draws | 25% | 14% | 20% | 0% | 33% | 19% |
| Loses | 25% | 71% | 47% | 14% | 11% | 13% |
Form: Alaves: WLDWLDLWDLWLLLW • Real Madrid: WWWWWWLWWWWDDDWL
League goals
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 7 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alaves | Real Madrid | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 80% | 88% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 13% | 69% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 7% | 31% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alaves | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 13% | 87% |
| Total | 37.2% | 62.8% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Madrid
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home6.30 @ 188Bet
Draw4.23 @ Pinnacle
Away1.63 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.87 @ SBO
Under 2.52.08 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ Pinnacle
No1.96 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Alaves
vs
Real Madrid
Expected goals
0.95
Alaves xG
League Avg: 1.51
Total
2.52
1.58
Real Madrid xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
22.6%
Draw
25.3%
Away
51.5%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
12.6%
Tip
1 - 1
12.0%
Tip
0 - 2
10.0%
More chances
1.5+
72%
Chance
2.5+
51%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
68%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Alaves = 0.95 (league 1.51), Real Madrid = 1.58 (league 1.14)
| Real Madrid | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alaves | 0 | 8.0% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.6% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 51.5%
vtt 31 , vtd1