La Liga — Spain
Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 20:00 • Estadio Mendizorrotza
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.45) 1.60 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.2% 25.0% 51.1%
best score tips
0 - 1
12.1%
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 2
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alaves 0 7.6% 12.1% 9.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7%
1 7.4% 11.9% 9.5% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6%
2 3.7% 5.9% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlavesReal Madrid
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack31%46%
Defense54%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alaves Real Madrid
HATHAT
Played87157916
Wins50%14%33%86%56%69%
Draws25%14%20%0%33%19%
Loses25%71%47%14%11%13%

Form: Alaves: WLDWLDLWDLWLLLW • Real Madrid: WWWWWWLWWWWDDDWL

League goals

Metric Alaves Real Madrid
HATHAT
GF total10313141832
GF avg1.30.40.92.02.02.0
GA total781551015
GA avg0.91.11.00.71.10.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlavesReal Madrid
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%88%56%
1.520%13%69%19%
2.57%7%31%6%
3.50%0%13%6%
4.50%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlavesReal Madrid
HATHAT
Clean sheets213347
Failed to score246112

Penalties

MetricAlavesReal Madrid
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricAlavesReal Madrid
Wins16
Draws13
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-14-01-4
Biggest losses1-23-10-25-2
Goals For3144
Goals Against2325

Model comparison

MetricAlavesReal Madrid
Form50%50%
Att40%60%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h0%100%
Goals13%87%
Total37.2%62.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Real Madrid

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home6.30 @ 188Bet
Draw4.23 @ Pinnacle
Away1.63 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.87 @ SBO
Under 2.52.08 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Pinnacle
No1.96 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alaves = 0.98 (league 1.45), Real Madrid = 1.60 (league 1.13)

Real Madrid
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alaves 0 7.6% 12.1% 9.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7%
1 7.4% 11.9% 9.5% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6%
2 3.7% 5.9% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.2% · Draw 25.0% · Away win 51.1%

Vtot 27 , Vtod1