Sat, Feb 7 2026 • 20:30 • Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.43) 1.18 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.0% 28.7% 38.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
Guimaraes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arouca 0 10.5% 12.4% 7.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.3% 13.3% 7.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.1% 7.2% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAroucaGuimaraes
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack53%33%
Defense53%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

80%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Arouca Guimaraes
HATHAT
Played10102011920
Wins20%30%25%45%33%40%
Draws30%20%25%27%11%20%
Loses50%50%50%27%56%40%

Form: Arouca: WLDDLWLDLLLLLWDDLWLW • Guimaraes: LWLDWDLWLLWWDWLDWLLW

League goals

Metric Arouca Guimaraes
HATHAT
GF total11122315621
GF avg1.11.21.21.40.71.1
GA total212344141327
GA avg2.12.32.21.31.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAroucaGuimaraes
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%80%60%65%
1.530%60%30%40%
2.520%40%10%20%
3.50%25%5%10%
4.50%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAroucaGuimaraes
HATHAT
Clean sheets134347
Failed to score437358

Penalties

MetricAroucaGuimaraes
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricAroucaGuimaraes
Wins12
Draws21
Losses52

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-34-00-2
Biggest losses0-46-01-43-0
Goals For3342
Goals Against4644

Model comparison

MetricAroucaGuimaraes
Form50%50%
Att62%38%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h15%85%
Goals36%64%
Total43.0%57.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Guimaraes

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.00 @ Unibet
Draw3.25 @ Bet365
Away2.71 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.23 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.73 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.97 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Arouca = 1.07 (league 1.43), Guimaraes = 1.18 (league 1.25)

Guimaraes
0 1 2 3 4 5
Arouca 0 10.5% 12.4% 7.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.3% 13.3% 7.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.1% 7.2% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.0% · Draw 28.7% · Away win 38.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1