Sat, Apr 4 2026 • 14:30 •
Estádio da Madeira
Expected Goals
1.62 (league 1.45)
1.30 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.4% | 24.3% | 30.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.4%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Estrela | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nacional | 0 | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 33% |
| Attack | 9% | 32% |
| Defense | 64% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 23% | 14% | 19% | 29% | 15% | 22% |
| Draws | 15% | 36% | 26% | 36% | 38% | 37% |
| Loses | 62% | 50% | 56% | 36% | 46% | 41% |
Form: Nacional: LDLWLLWWDLDLLWDLDLWLDLLLDLL • Estrela: DLDDLDWLLWDLWLDWDLLDWLLDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 12 | 29 | 20 | 13 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 21 | 18 | 39 | 21 | 24 | 45 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nacional | Estrela | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 85% | 59% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 44% | 30% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 11% | 22% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 7% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 0-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nacional | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 22% | 78% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 32.3% | 67.7% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Estrela
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.13 @ Dafabet
Draw3.58 @ 1xBet
Away3.70 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.95 @ 188Bet
Under 2.51.96 @ SBO
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.77 @ 188Bet
No2.15 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Nacional
vs
Estrela
Expected goals
1.62
Nacional xG
League Avg: 1.45
Total
2.92
1.30
Estrela xG
League Avg: 1.23
1x2 probabilities
Home
44.4%
Draw
24.3%
Away
30.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.4%
Tip
2 - 1
9.2%
Tip
1 - 0
8.8%
More chances
1.5+
79%
Chance
2.5+
56%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
67%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Nacional = 1.62 (league 1.45), Estrela = 1.30 (league 1.23)
| Estrela | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nacional | 0 | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.4% · Draw 24.3% · Away win 30.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1