National 1 — France
Fri, Jan 16 2026 • 18:30 • Stade Guy Piriou
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.31) 0.71 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
55.5% 26.3% 17.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
16.5%
2 - 0
12.3%
1 - 1
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Caen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Concarneau 0 11.1% 7.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.5% 11.7% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.3% 8.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricConcarneauCaen
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack75%50%
Defense63%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Concarneau Caen
HATHAT
Played69158715
Wins50%22%33%38%14%27%
Draws33%56%47%50%57%53%
Loses17%22%20%13%29%20%

Form: Concarneau: DWDWLLLWWDDWDDD • Caen: WDLWDDDLWLDDDWD

League goals

Metric Concarneau Caen
HATHAT
GF total96157815
GF avg1.50.71.00.91.11.0
GA total410143912
GA avg0.71.10.90.41.30.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineConcarneauCaen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.553%53%73%60%
1.533%20%20%20%
2.513%13%7%0%
3.50%7%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricConcarneauCaen
HATHAT
Clean sheets347606
Failed to score257404

Penalties

MetricConcarneauCaen
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricConcarneauCaen
Wins21
Draws23
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-23-01-2
Biggest losses0-14-00-22-1
Goals For3232
Goals Against2422

Model comparison

MetricConcarneauCaen
Form50%50%
Att60%40%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution68%32%
H2h33%67%
Goals25%75%
Total47.7%52.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Concarneau or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.94 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ Bet365
Away2.62 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.68 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Concarneau = 1.49 (league 1.31), Caen = 0.71 (league 1.08)

Caen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Concarneau 0 11.1% 7.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.5% 11.7% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.3% 8.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 55.5% · Draw 26.3% · Away win 17.8%

vtt 8 , vtd1