Sun, Feb 1 2026 • 17:15 • Estadio Anxo Carro
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.37) 0.61 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.3% 37.6% 25.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
24.1%
1 - 0
19.6%
0 - 1
14.7%
Score & goals probability table
Ponferradina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugo 0 24.1% 14.7% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.6% 11.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.0% 4.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLugoPonferradina
Played55
Form80%60%
Attack53%40%
Defense67%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

56%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lugo Ponferradina
HATHAT
Played101121101121
Wins60%18%38%40%27%33%
Draws30%45%38%10%36%24%
Loses10%36%24%50%36%43%

Form: Lugo: LDLWLWDWDDDDWLDDWWWLW • Ponferradina: WLLLDLWWDWDDLLDLLLWWW

League goals

Metric Lugo Ponferradina
HATHAT
GF total1472115823
GF avg1.40.61.01.50.71.1
GA total991813922
GA avg0.90.80.91.30.81.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLugoPonferradina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%57%67%52%
1.533%24%33%38%
2.50%5%10%14%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLugoPonferradina
HATHAT
Clean sheets5494610
Failed to score167167

Penalties

MetricLugoPonferradina
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricLugoPonferradina
Wins32
Draws42
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-23-00-3
Biggest losses1-32-01-32-0
Goals For2233
Goals Against3232

Model comparison

MetricLugoPonferradina
Form57%43%
Att57%43%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total51.5%48.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ponferradina and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.24 @ Dafabet
Draw3.02 @ Pinnacle
Away3.60 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.55 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.50 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.54 @ 188Bet
No1.70 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lugo = 0.81 (league 1.37), Ponferradina = 0.61 (league 1.04)

Ponferradina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugo 0 24.1% 14.7% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
1 19.6% 11.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.0% 4.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.3% · Draw 37.6% · Away win 25.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1