Sun, Feb 1 2026 • 17:15 •
Estadio Anxo Carro
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.38)
0.60 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6% | 37.7% | 24.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
24.3%
1 - 0
19.8%
0 - 1
14.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Ponferradina | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lugo | 0 | 24.3% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 60% |
| Attack | 53% | 40% |
| Defense | 67% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
55%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| Wins | 60% | 18% | 38% | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Draws | 30% | 45% | 38% | 10% | 36% | 24% |
| Loses | 10% | 36% | 24% | 50% | 36% | 43% |
Form: Lugo: LDLWLWDWDDDDWLDDWWWLW • Ponferradina: WLLLDLWWDWDDLLDLLLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 7 | 21 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 22 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lugo | Ponferradina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 57% | 67% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 24% | 33% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 5% | 10% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lugo | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 51.5% | 48.7% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ponferradina and -3.5 goals
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.24 @ Dafabet
Draw3.02 @ Pinnacle
Away3.60 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.55 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.54 @ 188Bet
No1.70 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Lugo
vs
Ponferradina
Expected goals
0.81
Lugo xG
League Avg: 1.38
Total
1.41
0.60
Ponferradina xG
League Avg: 1.05
1x2 probabilities
Home
37.6%
Draw
37.7%
Away
24.7%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
24.3%
Tip
1 - 0
19.8%
Tip
0 - 1
14.6%
More chances
1.5+
56%
Chance
2.5+
39%
Chance
3.5+
28%
Chance
BTTS
55%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Lugo = 0.81 (league 1.38), Ponferradina = 0.60 (league 1.05)
| Ponferradina | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lugo | 0 | 24.3% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.6% · Draw 37.7% · Away win 24.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1