Sun, Dec 14 2025 • 13:30 • Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.62 (league 1.28) 0.51 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.1% 43.3% 24.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
32.2%
1 - 0
20.1%
0 - 1
16.4%
Score & goals probability table
Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cittadella 0 32.2% 16.4% 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.1% 10.2% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 6.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCittadellaNovara
Played55
Form67%53%
Attack40%50%
Defense80%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

47%
FT probability

2.5+

33%
FT probability

3.5+

24%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Cittadella Novara
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins50%44%47%22%13%18%
Draws25%22%24%56%75%65%
Loses25%33%29%22%13%18%

Form: Cittadella: DWLLLLDDWWWWWWWDL • Novara: DDDDLDLDDWDDWWLDD

League goals

Metric Cittadella Novara
HATHAT
GF total68147815
GF avg0.80.90.80.81.00.9
GA total48127815
GA avg0.50.90.70.81.00.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCittadellaNovara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%53%71%65%
1.512%12%18%18%
2.50%6%0%6%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCittadellaNovara
HATHAT
Clean sheets448336
Failed to score325325

Penalties

MetricCittadellaNovara
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricCittadellaNovara
Wins72
Draws24
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-21-00-1
Biggest losses0-13-10-13-2
Goals For2222
Goals Against1323

Model comparison

MetricCittadellaNovara
Form56%44%
Att44%56%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h50%50%
Goals53%47%
Total54.3%45.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Cittadella or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.99 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.21 @ Pinnacle
Away4.10 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ 188Bet
No1.81 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Cittadella = 0.62 (league 1.28), Novara = 0.51 (league 0.98)

Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cittadella 0 32.2% 16.4% 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.1% 10.2% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 6.3% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.1% · Draw 43.3% · Away win 24.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1