Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 16:30 • Estadio Sarriena
Match Finished
3 - 2
Expected Goals
1.30 (league 1.46) 1.03 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.6% 27.8% 29.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.0%
1 - 0
12.7%
0 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
Deusto
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leioa 0 9.7% 10.0% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 12.7% 13.0% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.3% 8.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLeioaDeusto
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack13%33%
Defense73%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Leioa Deusto
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins43%50%47%25%29%27%
Draws14%25%20%25%29%27%
Loses43%25%33%50%43%47%

Form: Leioa: LWWLLDWWDWWLLDW • Deusto: LLDLLDWWLDWWLLD

League goals

Metric Leioa Deusto
HATHAT
GF total135186612
GF avg1.90.61.20.80.90.8
GA total93129716
GA avg1.30.40.81.11.01.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLeioaDeusto
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%47%60%60%
1.520%13%13%33%
2.513%13%7%13%
3.57%7%0%0%
4.57%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLeioaDeusto
HATHAT
Clean sheets358426
Failed to score336426

Penalties

MetricLeioaDeusto
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricLeioaDeusto
Wins22
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-10-13-00-2
Biggest losses0-31-00-32-0
Goals For7132
Goals Against4132

Model comparison

MetricLeioaDeusto
Form50%50%
Att29%71%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%62%
Total44.2%55.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Deusto and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.00 @ Betano
Draw3.01 @ Pinnacle
Away4.15 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Marathonbet
No1.65 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.56 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.45 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Leioa = 1.30 (league 1.46), Deusto = 1.03 (league 1.14)

Deusto
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leioa 0 9.7% 10.0% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 12.7% 13.0% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.3% 8.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.6% · Draw 27.8% · Away win 29.3%

vtt 2 , vtd1