Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 01:00 • Estadio Morelos
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.74 (league 1.63) 0.84 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.3% 35.6% 35.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
20.7%
0 - 1
17.3%
1 - 0
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
Tepatitlán
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monarcas 0 20.7% 17.3% 7.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.3% 12.8% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.6% 4.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMonarcasTepatitlán
Played55
Form67%67%
Attack35%47%
Defense76%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Monarcas Tepatitlán
HATHAT
Played131326141327
Wins54%31%42%50%23%37%
Draws23%38%31%21%54%37%
Loses23%31%27%29%23%26%

Form: Monarcas: DWLWDWLLLDWLWDWDDDWWLDWWWL • Tepatitlán: DDWWWDDLDWLLDLWDLLDWWDWDWLW

League goals

Metric Monarcas Tepatitlán
HATHAT
GF total191736211435
GF avg1.51.31.41.51.11.3
GA total101929121123
GA avg0.81.51.10.90.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMonarcasTepatitlán
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%62%67%67%
1.542%27%33%15%
2.523%15%22%4%
3.50%4%7%0%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMonarcasTepatitlán
HATHAT
Clean sheets6410549
Failed to score527369

Penalties

MetricMonarcasTepatitlán
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total50

Streaks

MetricMonarcasTepatitlán
Wins33
Draws32
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-01-4
Biggest losses0-25-01-21-0
Goals For3344
Goals Against3523

Model comparison

MetricMonarcasTepatitlán
Form50%50%
Att43%57%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h40%60%
Goals44%56%
Total45.2%54.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Tepatitlán and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.49 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away2.99 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.73 @ 188Bet
No2.08 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.86 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Monarcas = 0.74 (league 1.63), Tepatitlán = 0.84 (league 1.05)

Tepatitlán
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monarcas 0 20.7% 17.3% 7.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.3% 12.8% 5.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.6% 4.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.3% · Draw 35.6% · Away win 35.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1