Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 01:00 •
Estadio Morelos
Expected Goals
0.75 (league 1.60)
0.86 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.3% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.0%
0 - 1
17.2%
1 - 0
15.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Tepatitlán | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Monarcas | 0 | 20.0% | 17.2% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.0% | 12.9% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 35% | 47% |
| Defense | 76% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 54% | 31% | 42% | 50% | 23% | 37% |
| Draws | 23% | 38% | 31% | 21% | 54% | 37% |
| Loses | 23% | 31% | 27% | 29% | 23% | 26% |
Form: Monarcas: DWLWDWLLLDWLWDWDDDWWLDWWWL • Tepatitlán: DDWWWDDLDWLLDLWDLLDWWDWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 17 | 36 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 10 | 19 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 62% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 27% | 33% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 15% | 22% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Monarcas | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 45.2% | 54.8% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Tepatitlán and -3.5 goals
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.49 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away2.99 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ 188Bet
No2.08 @ 188Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.86 @ 188Bet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Monarcas
vs
Tepatitlán
Expected goals
0.75
Monarcas xG
League Avg: 1.60
Total
1.61
0.86
Tepatitlán xG
League Avg: 1.03
1x2 probabilities
Home
29.3%
Draw
35.2%
Away
35.5%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
20.0%
Tip
0 - 1
17.2%
Tip
1 - 0
15.0%
More chances
1.5+
64%
Chance
2.5+
45%
Chance
3.5+
32%
Chance
BTTS
60%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 6
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Monarcas = 0.75 (league 1.60), Tepatitlán = 0.86 (league 1.03)
| Tepatitlán | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Monarcas | 0 | 20.0% | 17.2% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.0% | 12.9% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.3% · Draw 35.2% · Away win 35.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1