Tue, Mar 3 2026 • 17:00 • MTN Omondi Stadium
Match Finished

NEC

1 - 0
Expected Goals
2.19 (league 1.37) 1.04 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
61.0% 19.6% 16.9%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.9%
2 - 0
9.4%
1 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
UPDF
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC 0 3.9% 4.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
1 8.6% 9.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.4% 9.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.9% 7.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 3.8% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNECUPDF
Played55
Form60%7%
Attack80%0%
Defense50%30%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.60 | 0
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

48%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric NEC UPDF
HATHAT
Played89178917
Wins38%22%29%13%22%18%
Draws63%44%53%25%11%18%
Loses0%33%18%63%67%65%

Form: NEC: DDLWDLWDDLDWDWDWD • UPDF: LWLLLWLLWDDLLLLDL

League goals

Metric NEC UPDF
HATHAT
GF total127194812
GF avg1.50.81.10.50.90.7
GA total881671825
GA avg1.00.90.90.92.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNECUPDF
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%65%53%71%
1.518%24%18%41%
2.512%6%0%18%
3.50%0%0%12%
4.50%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNECUPDF
HATHAT
Clean sheets336325
Failed to score123538

Penalties

MetricNECUPDF
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricNECUPDF
Wins11
Draws22
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-12-00-1
Biggest losses—2-11-25-1
Goals For3122
Goals Against3225

Model comparison

MetricNECUPDF
Form90%10%
Att100%0%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h75%25%
Goals71%29%
Total72.2%27.8%

Advice: Double chance : NEC or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.62 @ William Hill
Draw3.85 @ Unibet
Away6.00 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.70 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ William Hill
No1.60 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): NEC = 2.19 (league 1.37), UPDF = 1.04 (league 0.86)

UPDF
0 1 2 3 4 5
NEC 0 3.9% 4.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
1 8.6% 9.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.4% 9.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.9% 7.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 3.8% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 61.0% · Draw 19.6% · Away win 16.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1