Wed, Jan 14 2026 • 18:00 •
Estadi Johan Cruyff
Expected Goals
3.15 (league 1.51)
0.20 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 82.9% | 6.1% | 1.0% |
best score tips
3 - 0
18.3%
2 - 0
17.4%
4 - 0
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico Madrid W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Barcelona W | 0 | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.4% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 18.3% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.4% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 52% |
| Defense | 91% | 52% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 27 | 5.4 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
7.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
8.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
65%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 100% | 86% | 93% | 50% | 43% | 47% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 43% | 40% |
| Loses | 0% | 14% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
Form: Barcelona W: WWWWWWWWLWWWWWW • Atletico Madrid W: WWWDWDLDWWWLDDD
League goals
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 42 | 32 | 74 | 20 | 19 | 39 |
| GF avg | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| GA avg | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 93% | 27% | 93% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 93% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 0% | 40% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 73% | 0% | 40% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 47% | 0% | 20% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 12-1 | 1-8 | 4-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 0-6 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 12 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Barcelona W | Atletico Madrid W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 85% | 15% |
| Poisson Distribution | 93% | 7% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 79.5% | 20.5% |
Advice: Combo Winner : Barcelona W and +1.5 goals
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.05 @ William Hill
Draw15.69 @ Pinnacle
Away61.00 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.43 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.54.00 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes4.00 @ 188Bet
No1.40 @ Bet365
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Barcelona W = 3.15 (league 1.51), Atletico Madrid W = 0.20 (league 1.35)
| Atletico Madrid W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Barcelona W | 0 | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.4% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 18.3% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.4% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 82.9% · Draw 6.1% · Away win 1.0%
vtt 3 , vtd1
