Fri, Apr 17 2026 • 12:00 •
Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium
Expected Goals
2.01 (league 1.52)
0.73 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.6% | 20.1% | 12.6% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.0%
1 - 0
12.9%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Persepam Madura Utd | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Persebaya Surabaya | 0 | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 20% |
| Attack | 29% | 29% |
| Defense | 41% | 12% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 50% | 31% | 41% | 21% | 15% | 19% |
| Draws | 29% | 38% | 33% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
| Loses | 21% | 31% | 26% | 50% | 54% | 52% |
Form: Persebaya Surabaya: LWWLWDLDWDDDDDWWWWDWLLWDLWL • Persepam Madura Utd: LWDLDLDWLDWLLDWLLLDLDDLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 14 | 38 | 16 | 11 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 16 | 17 | 33 | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 70% | 59% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 30% | 30% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 4% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 4% | 4% | 15% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-1 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Persebaya Surabaya | Persepam Madura Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Advice: Double chance : Persebaya Surabaya or draw
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.70 @ Betano
Draw3.82 @ Pinnacle
Away5.10 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.87 @ Betfair
No1.91 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Persebaya Surabaya
vs
Persepam Madura Utd
Expected goals
2.01
Persebaya Surabaya xG
League Avg: 1.52
Total
2.74
0.73
Persepam Madura Utd xG
League Avg: 1.20
1x2 probabilities
Home
65.6%
Draw
20.1%
Away
12.6%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
13.0%
Tip
1 - 0
12.9%
Tip
2 - 1
9.5%
More chances
1.5+
76%
Chance
2.5+
54%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Persebaya Surabaya = 2.01 (league 1.52), Persepam Madura Utd = 0.73 (league 1.20)
| Persepam Madura Utd | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Persebaya Surabaya | 0 | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.7% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 65.6% · Draw 20.1% · Away win 12.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1