Fri, Jan 16 2026 • 13:00 • Moi International Sports Centre
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.72 (league 0.97) 1.43 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.9% 27.0% 53.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.6%
1 - 1
12.0%
0 - 2
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
Ulinzi Stars
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mathare United 0 11.6% 16.6% 11.9% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6%
1 8.4% 12.0% 8.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4%
2 3.0% 4.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMathare UnitedUlinzi Stars
Played55
Form27%27%
Attack7%40%
Defense73%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mathare United Ulinzi Stars
HATHAT
Played79168816
Wins29%33%31%13%38%25%
Draws0%33%19%38%25%31%
Loses71%33%50%50%38%44%

Form: Mathare United: LWDLWLLDWLWLDWLL • Ulinzi Stars: WDDLLLDLWWDLLLWD

League goals

Metric Mathare United Ulinzi Stars
HATHAT
GF total5498816
GF avg0.70.40.61.01.01.0
GA total95149817
GA avg1.30.60.91.11.01.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMathare UnitedUlinzi Stars
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%56%75%69%
1.56%31%13%31%
2.50%0%13%6%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMathare UnitedUlinzi Stars
HATHAT
Clean sheets257235
Failed to score358224

Penalties

MetricMathare UnitedUlinzi Stars
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricMathare UnitedUlinzi Stars
Wins12
Draws12
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-13-01-3
Biggest losses0-22-01-23-1
Goals For2133
Goals Against2223

Model comparison

MetricMathare UnitedUlinzi Stars
Form50%50%
Att14%86%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h38%62%
Goals33%67%
Total39.2%60.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ulinzi Stars and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.95 @ Dafabet
Draw2.75 @ Dafabet
Away2.85 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.30 @ Superbet
No1.56 @ Superbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.88 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mathare United = 0.72 (league 0.97), Ulinzi Stars = 1.43 (league 0.91)

Ulinzi Stars
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mathare United 0 11.6% 16.6% 11.9% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6%
1 8.4% 12.0% 8.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4%
2 3.0% 4.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.9% · Draw 27.0% · Away win 53.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1