Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 13:00 •
Dobsonville Stadium
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.19)
0.79 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.9% | 24.5% | 17.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.4%
2 - 0
11.8%
1 - 1
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Lerumo Lions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Leicesterfield | 0 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.8% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Leicesterfield carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 36 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Leicesterfield -9.3, Lerumo Lions -11.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Leicesterfield
vs
Lerumo Lions
Elo gapLeicesterfield +36
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2960.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2960.4
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.7 | 1479.7 |
| Form Elo | 1481 | 1464.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.3 | 1489.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1436.2 | 1487.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1492.1 | 1475.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.3 | -11.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Leicesterfield last-5 Elo change: -9.3; Lerumo Lions last-5 Elo change: -11.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 45% | 45% |
| Defense | 27% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 50% | 15% | 32% | 38% | 25% | 32% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 24% | 23% | 33% | 28% |
| Loses | 0% | 85% | 44% | 38% | 42% | 40% |
LeicesterfieldLWLDWWWLLDLDWLWLLWLDLDDWL
Lerumo LionsLWLDLLWWDWWLLWWDLDLDDLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 9 | 25 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 80% | 72% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 24% | 36% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 16% | 8% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 12% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 5-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Leicesterfield | Lerumo Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 52.3% | 47.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Leicesterfield
vs
Lerumo Lions
Expected goals
1.64
Leicesterfield xG
League Avg: 1.19
Total
2.43
0.79
Lerumo Lions xG
League Avg: 0.91
1x2 probabilities
Home
56.9%
Draw
24.5%
Away
17.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
14.4%
Tip
2 - 0
11.8%
Tip
1 - 1
11.4%
More chances
1.5+
66%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Leicesterfield = 1.64 (league 1.19), Lerumo Lions = 0.79 (league 0.91)
| Lerumo Lions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Leicesterfield | 0 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.8% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.9% · Draw 24.5% · Away win 17.9%
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