Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 17:00 •
Estadio de San Mamés
Expected Goals
1.10 (league 1.54)
0.74 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.9% | 31.7% | 24.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.5%
0 - 0
15.9%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Osasuna | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Athletic Club | 0 | 15.8% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.6% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Athletic Club -16.5, Osasuna -10.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Athletic Club
vs
Osasuna
Elo gapOsasuna +8
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3063.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3063.3
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1510 | 1553.3 |
| Form Elo | 1491.4 | 1561.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.3 | 1492.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1416.9 | 1561.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1525.9 | 1559.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.5 | -10.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Athletic Club last-5 Elo change: -16.5; Osasuna last-5 Elo change: -10.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 40% |
| Attack | 25% | 58% |
| Defense | 25% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 15 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 31 |
| Wins | 50% | 20% | 35% | 53% | 13% | 32% |
| Draws | 13% | 20% | 16% | 33% | 25% | 29% |
| Loses | 38% | 60% | 48% | 13% | 63% | 39% |
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OsasunaLWLWLDLWLLDLLDWLWDLWWDWDWLDLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 13 | 33 | 26 | 11 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 17 | 21 | 38 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Athletic Club | Osasuna | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 84% | 68% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 42% | 42% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 16% | 10% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Athletic Club | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 47.5% | 52.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.96 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ Betano
Away4.62 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.18 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.81 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.87 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Athletic Club
vs
Osasuna
Expected goals
1.10
Athletic Club xG
League Avg: 1.54
Total
1.84
0.74
Osasuna xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
43.9%
Draw
31.7%
Away
24.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
17.5%
Tip
0 - 0
15.9%
Tip
1 - 1
12.9%
More chances
1.5+
68%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
67%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Athletic Club = 1.10 (league 1.53), Osasuna = 0.74 (league 1.14)
| Osasuna | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Athletic Club | 0 | 15.8% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.6% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.8% · Draw 31.7% · Away win 24.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1