Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 00:45 •
VÃctor Legrotaglie
Expected Goals
1.31 (league 0.99)
2.04 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.1% | 21.4% | 52.5% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.6%
1 - 1
9.4%
0 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Lanus | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gimnasia M. | 0 | 3.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Gimnasia M. -18.1, Lanus +0.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Gimnasia M.
vs
Lanus
Elo gapGimnasia M. +6
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3162.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3162.4
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1566.7 | 1595.7 |
| Form Elo | 1562 | 1599.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1540.2 | 1512 |
| Attack Elo | 1450.6 | 1523.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1641.9 | 1650.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.1 | +0.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Gimnasia M. last-5 Elo change: -18.1; Lanus last-5 Elo change: +0.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 56% | 89% |
| Defense | 33% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Wins | 33% | 14% | 23% | 50% | 43% | 46% |
| Draws | 17% | 43% | 31% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Loses | 50% | 43% | 46% | 17% | 29% | 23% |
Gimnasia M.WLLWLLDDDLLWD
LanusWWDDLDLWWWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 7 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gimnasia M. | Lanus | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 62% | 77% | 77% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 8% | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 8% | 15% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-1 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gimnasia M. | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 33.5% | 66.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.50 @ Bet365
Draw2.95 @ Unibet
Away2.55 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.13 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.40 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.30 @ 10Bet
No1.57 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Gimnasia M.
vs
Lanus
Expected goals
1.31
Gimnasia M. xG
League Avg: 0.99
Total
3.34
2.04
Lanus xG
League Avg: 0.77
1x2 probabilities
Home
24.1%
Draw
21.4%
Away
52.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
9.6%
Tip
1 - 1
9.4%
Tip
0 - 2
7.3%
More chances
1.5+
66%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
68%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Gimnasia M. = 1.31 (league 0.99), Lanus = 2.03 (league 0.77)
| Lanus | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gimnasia M. | 0 | 3.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.2% · Draw 21.4% · Away win 52.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1