Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 17:00 •
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.51)
0.84 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.1% | 21.6% | 15.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.2%
2 - 0
11.6%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Valencia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mallorca | 0 | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Mallorca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 41 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mallorca +24.8, Valencia -9.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Mallorca
vs
Valencia
Elo gapMallorca +41
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3038.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3038.1
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.9 | 1516.2 |
| Form Elo | 1528.6 | 1507.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1529.9 | 1492.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1477.4 | 1497.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1577.7 | 1503.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +24.8 | -9.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Mallorca last-5 Elo change: +24.8; Valencia last-5 Elo change: -9.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 40% |
| Attack | 83% | 58% |
| Defense | 50% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 15 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 31 |
| Wins | 50% | 7% | 29% | 40% | 19% | 29% |
| Draws | 25% | 20% | 23% | 33% | 19% | 26% |
| Loses | 25% | 73% | 48% | 27% | 63% | 45% |
MallorcaLDLLDLWLWDLWLDDWDLLWLWLLLLDWLWW
ValenciaDLWLWDLLDLLDWDDLDLDWWLLWLWWLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 13 | 39 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 19 | 29 | 48 | 18 | 28 | 46 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mallorca | Valencia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 87% | 74% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 52% | 26% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 16% | 10% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mallorca | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 57.3% | 42.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.60 @ 1xBet
Draw3.25 @ 1xBet
Away3.09 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.25 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.75 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ William Hill
No1.93 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Mallorca
vs
Valencia
Expected goals
1.91
Mallorca xG
League Avg: 1.51
Total
2.75
0.84
Valencia xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
61.1%
Draw
21.6%
Away
15.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
12.2%
Tip
2 - 0
11.6%
Tip
1 - 1
10.3%
More chances
1.5+
77%
Chance
2.5+
54%
Chance
3.5+
39%
Chance
BTTS
72%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Mallorca = 1.91 (league 1.51), Valencia = 0.84 (league 1.14)
| Valencia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mallorca | 0 | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 61.1% · Draw 21.6% · Away win 15.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1