Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.75 (league 1.65)
1.73 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.4% | 22.4% | 37.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Fluminense U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Flamengo U20 | 0 | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Flamengo U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 55 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Flamengo U20 -14.6, Fluminense U20 -8.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Flamengo U20
vs
Fluminense U20
Elo gapFlamengo U20 +55
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3215.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3215.9
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1617.8 | 1598.1 |
| Form Elo | 1610.9 | 1593 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1561.4 | 1526 |
| Attack Elo | 1787.7 | 1584.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1608.7 | 1636.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.6 | -8.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Flamengo U20 last-5 Elo change: -14.6; Fluminense U20 last-5 Elo change: -8.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 50% | 75% |
| Defense | 33% | 17% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
71%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
86%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 33% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 17% | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Loses | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
Flamengo U20WLWLDW
Fluminense U20DDLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 50% | 67% | 83% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 4-6 | 3-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Flamengo U20 | Fluminense U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 58.3% | 41.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Flamengo U20
vs
Fluminense U20
Expected goals
1.75
Flamengo U20 xG
League Avg: 1.65
Total
3.47
1.73
Fluminense U20 xG
League Avg: 1.16
1x2 probabilities
Home
38.4%
Draw
22.4%
Away
37.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.3%
Tip
2 - 1
8.2%
Tip
1 - 2
8.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
71%
Chance
3.5+
51%
Chance
BTTS
86%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Flamengo U20 = 1.75 (league 1.65), Fluminense U20 = 1.73 (league 1.16)
| Fluminense U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Flamengo U20 | 0 | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.4% · Draw 22.4% · Away win 37.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1