Cup — Montenegro
Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:30 • Stadion Topolica
Not Started

Mornar

—

Jezero

Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.26) 0.05 (league 1.68)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
67.6% 30.8% 1.5%
best score tips
1 - 0
34.5%
0 - 0
29.0%
2 - 0
20.5%
Score & goals probability table
Jezero
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mornar 0 29.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 34.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Mornar carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 182 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mornar +26.9, Jezero +11.7.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Mornar Elo 1634.6 · +26.9
vs
Jezero Elo 1488 · +11.7
Elo gapMornar +182
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo3122.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3122.6
Elo home share 74%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Mornar Jezero
Overall Elo1634.61488
Form Elo1697.71521.9
Home / Away Elo1548.11505.1
Attack Elo1572.41453.2
Defense Elo1608.11537.7
Last 5 Elo change+26.9+11.7

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mornar last-5 Elo change: +26.9; Jezero last-5 Elo change: +11.7.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMornarJezero
Played22
Form100%100%
Attack33%40%
Defense100%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 2.56 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)0 | 03 | 1.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-1
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mornar Jezero
HATHAT
Played112112
Wins100%100%100%100%100%100%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%
MornarWW
JezeroWW

League goals

Metric Mornar Jezero
HATHAT
GF total145426
GF avg1.04.02.54.02.03.0
GA total000303
GA avg0.00.00.03.00.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMornarJezero
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%0%100%50%
1.550%0%100%50%
2.550%0%50%50%
3.550%0%50%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMornarJezero
HATHAT
Clean sheets112011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricMornarJezero
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricMornarJezero
Wins22
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-44-30-2
Biggest losses————
Goals For1442
Goals Against0030

Model comparison

MetricMornarJezero
Form50%50%
Att45%55%
Def100%0%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h50%50%
Goals54%46%
Total49.8%50.3%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • Mornar vs Jezero
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Mornar
vs
Jezero
Cup • Montenegro • Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:30 • Stadion Topolica
Expected goals
1.19
Mornar xG League Avg: 1.26
Total
1.24
0.05
Jezero xG League Avg: 1.68
1x2 probabilities
Home
67.6%
Draw
30.8%
Away
1.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
34.5%
Tip
0 - 0
29.0%
Tip
2 - 0
20.5%
More chances
1.5+
71%
Chance
2.5+
50%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
55%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 1
Exp.
#Mornar #Jezero #Cup #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Mornar = 1.19 (league 1.26), Jezero = 0.05 (league 1.68)

Jezero
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mornar 0 29.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 34.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.6% · Draw 30.8% · Away win 1.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1