Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:45 •
Finn Park
Expected Goals
1.15 (league 1.57)
0.61 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.7% | 31.6% | 19.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.8%
0 - 0
17.3%
1 - 1
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Athlone Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Finn Harps | 0 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.8% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Finn Harps carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 101 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Finn Harps 0.0, Athlone Town +7.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Finn Harps
vs
Athlone Town
Elo gapFinn Harps +101
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo2786.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2786.2
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1426.3 | 1359.9 |
| Form Elo | 1418.4 | 1369.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1471.8 | 1415.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1439.7 | 1363.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1425.5 | 1334.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | 0.0 | +7.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Finn Harps last-5 Elo change: 0.0; Athlone Town last-5 Elo change: +7.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 36% | 45% |
| Defense | 45% | 27% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 20% | 17% | 18% | 67% | 20% | 45% |
| Draws | 60% | 33% | 45% | 17% | 0% | 9% |
| Loses | 20% | 50% | 36% | 17% | 80% | 45% |
Finn HarpsLWDDDLWDDLL
Athlone TownWWDLWLLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 6 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Finn Harps | Athlone Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 82% | 73% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Finn Harps | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 37% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 50.5% | 49.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.25 @ 10Bet
Draw3.29 @ Pinnacle
Away3.30 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.97 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.83 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.78 @ Unibet
No2.00 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Finn Harps
vs
Athlone Town
Expected goals
1.15
Finn Harps xG
League Avg: 1.57
Total
1.76
0.61
Athlone Town xG
League Avg: 1.18
1x2 probabilities
Home
48.7%
Draw
31.6%
Away
19.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
19.8%
Tip
0 - 0
17.3%
Tip
1 - 1
12.1%
More chances
1.5+
68%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
68%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Finn Harps = 1.15 (league 1.57), Athlone Town = 0.61 (league 1.18)
| Athlone Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Finn Harps | 0 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.8% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.7% · Draw 31.6% · Away win 19.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1