Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Bayliss Avenue
Expected Goals
1.69 (league 1.96)
1.76 (league 1.53)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5% | 22.5% | 39.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.5%
1 - 2
8.3%
2 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Broadbridge Heath | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Erith Town | 0 | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Broadbridge Heath carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Erith Town +15.0, Broadbridge Heath -7.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Erith Town
vs
Broadbridge Heath
Elo gapBroadbridge Heath +25
Home / draw / away33% / 27% / 40%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo2933.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2933.5
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1437 | 1496.5 |
| Form Elo | 1433 | 1485.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1474.2 | 1492 |
| Attack Elo | 1572.5 | 1596.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1313.4 | 1363.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +15.0 | -7.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Erith Town last-5 Elo change: +15.0; Broadbridge Heath last-5 Elo change: -7.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 61% | 35% |
| Defense | 61% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 21 | 38 | 18 | 19 | 37 |
| Wins | 24% | 33% | 29% | 50% | 26% | 38% |
| Draws | 35% | 24% | 29% | 6% | 21% | 14% |
| Loses | 41% | 43% | 42% | 44% | 53% | 49% |
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Broadbridge HeathWDWDLLLLWWWLWWLWWWDLLLLLLLDWWLLWDLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 38 | 63 | 41 | 29 | 70 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 30 | 45 | 75 | 33 | 42 | 75 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 84% | 86% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 58% | 57% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 32% | 22% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 11% | 14% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 8% | 11% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 1-7 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 3-7 | 5-1 | 2-5 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Erith Town | Broadbridge Heath |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 59% | 41% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 56.0% | 44.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Erith Town
vs
Broadbridge Heath
Expected goals
1.69
Erith Town xG
League Avg: 1.96
Total
3.45
1.76
Broadbridge Heath xG
League Avg: 1.53
1x2 probabilities
Home
36.5%
Draw
22.5%
Away
39.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.5%
Tip
1 - 2
8.3%
Tip
2 - 1
8.0%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
73%
Chance
3.5+
52%
Chance
BTTS
83%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Erith Town = 1.69 (league 1.96), Broadbridge Heath = 1.76 (league 1.53)
| Broadbridge Heath | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Erith Town | 0 | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.5% · Draw 22.5% · Away win 39.4%
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