Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:00 •
M-Scores Stadion
Expected Goals
1.03 (league 1.76)
1.64 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.8% | 24.6% | 50.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
0 - 1
11.4%
1 - 2
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Willem II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dordrecht | 0 | 6.9% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Willem II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 22 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dordrecht -13.3, Willem II +28.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Dordrecht
vs
Willem II
Elo gapWillem II +22
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2946.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2946.4
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1444.6 | 1501.8 |
| Form Elo | 1440.4 | 1529.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498 | 1504.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1466.4 | 1511.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1374.9 | 1504.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.3 | +28.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Dordrecht last-5 Elo change: -13.3; Willem II last-5 Elo change: +28.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 80% |
| Attack | 25% | 44% |
| Defense | 31% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 33% | 32% | 32% | 53% | 50% | 51% |
| Draws | 28% | 32% | 30% | 21% | 22% | 22% |
| Loses | 39% | 37% | 38% | 26% | 28% | 27% |
DordrechtWWLWDDLDDWLLWLDDWLLLLDWWWWWLDDLDLLDWL
Willem IILLWWDDWWWLWLDLDDWLWLDWWLWDWLWDWWLWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 24 | 47 | 25 | 32 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 23 | 31 | 54 | 16 | 25 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dordrecht | Willem II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 78% | 86% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 43% | 46% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 19% | 16% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dordrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 32% | 68% |
| Total | 30.5% | 69.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.55 @ Dafabet
Draw3.70 @ Betfair
Away2.71 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.50 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.48 @ Marathonbet
No2.70 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Dordrecht
vs
Willem II
Expected goals
1.03
Dordrecht xG
League Avg: 1.76
Total
2.67
1.64
Willem II xG
League Avg: 1.43
1x2 probabilities
Home
23.8%
Draw
24.6%
Away
50.8%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.7%
Tip
0 - 1
11.4%
Tip
1 - 2
9.6%
More chances
1.5+
80%
Chance
2.5+
56%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Dordrecht = 1.03 (league 1.76), Willem II = 1.64 (league 1.43)
| Willem II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dordrecht | 0 | 6.9% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.8% · Draw 24.6% · Away win 50.8%
vtt 1 , vtd1