Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 13:30 •
Stadion Gradski vrt
Expected Goals
1.25 (league 1.46)
1.68 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.2% | 24.0% | 46.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.4%
0 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| HNK Gorica | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vukovar | 0 | 5.5% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Vukovar carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vukovar -48.7, HNK Gorica +2.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Vukovar
vs
HNK Gorica
Elo gapVukovar +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2963.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2963.8
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1487.9 | 1475.9 |
| Form Elo | 1460.3 | 1459.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.2 | 1488.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.7 | 1536.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1459.8 | 1450.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -48.7 | +2.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Vukovar last-5 Elo change: -48.7; HNK Gorica last-5 Elo change: +2.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 27% | 33% |
| Defense | 7% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 27% | 7% | 17% | 33% | 20% | 27% |
| Draws | 40% | 20% | 30% | 20% | 33% | 27% |
| Loses | 33% | 73% | 53% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
VukovarLLDDLLWLLDWDDLDLWLLLWDDLLLLDLW
HNK GoricaDLWDLWWLLLLWDWLLDLLWLDWLDDWDLL
League goals
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 10 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 27 | 31 | 58 | 21 | 21 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vukovar | HNK Gorica | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 90% | 67% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 60% | 30% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 23% | 10% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 7% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-6 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vukovar | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 22% | 78% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.90 @ Dafabet
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away2.49 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.96 @ SBO
Under 2.51.85 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.05 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Vukovar
vs
HNK Gorica
Expected goals
1.25
Vukovar xG
League Avg: 1.46
Total
2.93
1.68
HNK Gorica xG
League Avg: 1.07
1x2 probabilities
Home
28.2%
Draw
24.0%
Away
46.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.2%
Tip
1 - 2
9.4%
Tip
0 - 1
9.0%
More chances
1.5+
78%
Chance
2.5+
55%
Chance
3.5+
39%
Chance
BTTS
73%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Vukovar = 1.28 (league 1.42), HNK Gorica = 1.63 (league 1.11)
| HNK Gorica | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vukovar | 0 | 5.5% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.9% · Draw 24.3% · Away win 44.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1