Marseille vs Lens

Ligue 1 — France

Sat, Jan 24 2026 • 20:05 • Orange Vélodrome

Match Finished

Marseille

3 - 1

Lens

Expected Goals

1.70 (league 1.59) 1.47 (league 1.27)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
42.4%	23.4%	33.0%

best score tips

1 - 1

10.5%

2 - 1

8.9%

1 - 2

7.7%

Score & goals probability table

		Lens
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Marseille	0	4.2%	6.2%	4.6%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
	1	7.2%	10.5%	7.7%	3.8%	1.4%	0.4%
	2	6.1%	8.9%	6.6%	3.2%	1.2%	0.3%
	3	3.4%	5.0%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
	4	1.4%	2.1%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
	5	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Marseille	Lens
Played	5	5
Form	47%	100%
Attack	67%	83%
Defense	42%	83%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	8 \| 1.6	10 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	2 \| 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%

FT probability

2.5+

62%

FT probability

3.5+

44%

FT probability

BTTS

70%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-3

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Marseille			Lens
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	9	9	18	9	9	18
Wins	67%	56%	61%	89%	67%	78%
Draws	22%	0%	11%	0%	11%	6%
Loses	11%	44%	28%	11%	22%	17%

MarseilleLWLWWWWWLDWWWDLWLW

LensLWWLWDWWWLWWWWWWWW

League goals

Metric	Marseille			Lens
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	24	17	41	17	15	32
GF avg	2.7	1.9	2.3	1.9	1.7	1.8
GA total	10	9	19	4	9	13
GA avg	1.1	1.0	1.1	0.4	1.0	0.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Marseille		Lens
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	78%	67%	78%	61%
1.5	56%	39%	67%	11%
2.5	39%	0%	28%	0%
3.5	28%	0%	6%	0%
4.5	22%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Marseille			Lens
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	2	6	5	2	7
Failed to score	1	3	4	1	3	4

Penalties

Metric	Marseille	Lens
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	3

Streaks

Metric	Marseille	Lens
Wins	5	3
Draws	1	1
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	6-2	1-5	3-0	1-4
Biggest losses	0-2	2-1	0-1	2-0
Goals For	6	5	3	4
Goals Against	2	2	1	2

Model comparison

Metric	Marseille	Lens
Form	32%	68%
Att	44%	56%
Def	22%	78%
Poisson Distribution	50%	50%
H2h	40%	60%
Goals	50%	50%
Total	39.7%	60.3%

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.15 @ Betano

Draw3.90 @ 1xBet

Away3.42 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.61 @ Superbet

Under 2.52.60 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.54 @ Superbet

No2.74 @ Pinnacle

📊

League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Marseille vs Lens

footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Marseille

Lens

Ligue 1 • France • Sat, Jan 24 2026 • 20:05 • Orange Vélodrome

Expected goals

1.70

Marseille xG League Avg: 1.59

Total

3.16

1.47

Lens xG League Avg: 1.27

1x2 probabilities

Home

42.4%

Draw

23.4%

Away

33.0%

Best score tips

Tip

1 - 1

10.5%

Tip

2 - 1

8.9%

Tip

1 - 2

7.7%

More chances

1.5+

89%

Chance

2.5+

62%

Chance

3.5+

44%

Chance

BTTS

70%

Chance

🟨 Cards

2 - 3

Exp.

#Marseille #Lens #Ligue1 #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 1.69 (league 1.59), Lens = 1.47 (league 1.27)

		Lens
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Marseille	0	4.2%	6.2%	4.6%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
	1	7.2%	10.5%	7.7%	3.8%	1.4%	0.4%
	2	6.1%	8.9%	6.6%	3.2%	1.2%	0.3%
	3	3.4%	5.0%	3.7%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
	4	1.4%	2.1%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
	5	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.3% · Draw 23.4% · Away win 33.1%

vtt 7 , vtd1

Metric	Marseille	Lens
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	3