Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 01:30 •
America First Field
Expected Goals
3.72 (league 1.28)
2.65 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | 14.5% | 21.9% |
best score tips
3 - 2
5.2%
4 - 2
4.8%
3 - 3
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Inter Miami | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Salt Lake | 0 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Inter Miami carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 55 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Real Salt Lake +54.1, Inter Miami +29.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Real Salt Lake
vs
Inter Miami
Elo gapInter Miami +55
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3169.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3169.3
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1539.6 | 1629.7 |
| Form Elo | 1578.1 | 1661.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524 | 1537.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1534.1 | 1655.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1467 | 1487.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +54.1 | +29.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Real Salt Lake last-5 Elo change: +54.1; Inter Miami last-5 Elo change: +29.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 60% |
| Attack | 64% | 45% |
| Defense | 64% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
77%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
85%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Wins | 100% | 33% | 71% | 0% | 67% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 14% | 100% | 17% | 38% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 14% | 0% | 17% | 13% |
Real Salt LakeLWWWDWW
Inter MiamiLWWDWDDW
League goals
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| GF avg | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 100% | 75% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 86% | 43% | 75% | 75% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 0% | 38% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 2-3 | — | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Real Salt Lake | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 55.3% | 44.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.29 @ Dafabet
Draw4.00 @ Dafabet
Away2.90 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.47 @ Betano
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.42 @ Betano
No2.88 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Real Salt Lake
vs
Inter Miami
Expected goals
3.72
Real Salt Lake xG
League Avg: 1.28
Total
6.38
2.65
Inter Miami xG
League Avg: 0.98
1x2 probabilities
Home
42.0%
Draw
14.5%
Away
21.9%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 2
5.2%
Tip
4 - 2
4.8%
Tip
3 - 3
4.6%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
77%
Chance
3.5+
55%
Chance
BTTS
85%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Real Salt Lake = 3.72 (league 1.28), Inter Miami = 2.65 (league 0.98)
| Inter Miami | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Salt Lake | 0 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.0% · Draw 14.5% · Away win 21.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1