Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 23:30 •
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Expected Goals
0.80 (league 1.27)
0.70 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.7% | 36.6% | 28.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
22.2%
1 - 0
17.9%
0 - 1
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
| DC United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| New York Red Bulls | 0 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
New York Red Bulls carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: New York Red Bulls -5.9, DC United +14.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
New York Red Bulls
vs
DC United
Elo gapNew York Red Bulls +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2901.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2901.2
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1450.4 | 1450.8 |
| Form Elo | 1436.8 | 1464.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504 | 1464.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1509.6 | 1447.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1462.6 | 1422.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.9 | +14.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. New York Red Bulls last-5 Elo change: -5.9; DC United last-5 Elo change: +14.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 41% | 9% |
| Defense | 32% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Wins | 67% | 20% | 38% | 33% | 20% | 25% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 25% | 0% | 40% | 25% |
| Loses | 33% | 40% | 38% | 67% | 40% | 50% |
New York Red BullsWWLDLWDL
DC UnitedWLLWDLLD
League goals
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 5 | 14 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | New York Red Bulls | DC United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 88% | 38% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 63% | 13% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 38% | 0% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-1 | 0-4 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | New York Red Bulls | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 82% | 18% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 55.8% | 44.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.93 @ Betano
Draw3.85 @ Pinnacle
Away4.00 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.78 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.14 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.17 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
New York Red Bulls
vs
DC United
Expected goals
0.80
New York Red Bulls xG
League Avg: 1.27
Total
1.50
0.70
DC United xG
League Avg: 0.97
1x2 probabilities
Home
34.7%
Draw
36.6%
Away
28.7%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
22.2%
Tip
1 - 0
17.9%
Tip
0 - 1
15.6%
More chances
1.5+
71%
Chance
2.5+
50%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
59%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.