Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 01:30 •
Estadio Municipal de Cota
Expected Goals
1.62 (league 1.12)
1.13 (league 0.79)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 24.7% | 26.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
1 - 0
10.3%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| America de Cali | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fortaleza FC | 0 | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
America de Cali carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 69 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fortaleza FC +9.6, America de Cali +16.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Fortaleza FC
vs
America de Cali
Elo gapAmerica de Cali +69
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo3067.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3067.4
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1481.9 | 1585.5 |
| Form Elo | 1494.7 | 1594.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.8 | 1497.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1422.8 | 1522.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1499.5 | 1637.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.6 | +16.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Fortaleza FC last-5 Elo change: +9.6; America de Cali last-5 Elo change: +16.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 43% | 43% |
| Defense | 50% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
67%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 25% | 63% | 38% | 50% |
| Draws | 38% | 50% | 44% | 38% | 0% | 19% |
| Loses | 13% | 50% | 31% | 0% | 63% | 31% |
Fortaleza FCWDDDDLWLDWLLLDDW
America de CaliWWDLWLWWLDWDLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 8 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 22 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 7 | 16 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 81% | 81% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 13% | 25% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fortaleza FC | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.3% | 51.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.15 @ Unibet
Draw3.15 @ Unibet
Away2.60 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.80 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Fortaleza FC
vs
America de Cali
Expected goals
1.62
Fortaleza FC xG
League Avg: 1.12
Total
2.75
1.13
America de Cali xG
League Avg: 0.79
1x2 probabilities
Home
48.0%
Draw
24.7%
Away
26.6%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.7%
Tip
1 - 0
10.3%
Tip
2 - 1
9.5%
More chances
1.5+
67%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Fortaleza FC = 1.62 (league 1.12), America de Cali = 1.13 (league 0.79)
| America de Cali | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fortaleza FC | 0 | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.0% · Draw 24.7% · Away win 26.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1