Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 18:00 •
Stade Bauer
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.39)
1.53 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.0% | 25.0% | 42.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 1
9.1%
1 - 2
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Guingamp | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| RED Star FC 93 | 0 | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 106 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: RED Star FC 93 +21.0, Guingamp -29.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
RED Star FC 93
vs
Guingamp
Elo gapRED Star FC 93 +106
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3053.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3053.4
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1562 | 1491.4 |
| Form Elo | 1562.5 | 1471.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1511.2 | 1522.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1472.3 | 1515.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.8 | 1507.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +21.0 | -29.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. RED Star FC 93 last-5 Elo change: +21.0; Guingamp last-5 Elo change: -29.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 62% | 23% |
| Defense | 54% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 47% | 43% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Draws | 40% | 20% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| Loses | 20% | 33% | 27% | 31% | 40% | 35% |
RED Star FC 93DLWWWWLWDWWLWDDDLWDDLWLDLWWDWL
GuingampDLLWWLWWDDLDWDWLLWWWLDLDDDWLLDL
League goals
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 20 | 38 | 19 | 21 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 19 | 14 | 33 | 21 | 23 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 57% | 71% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 42% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 20% | 16% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-3 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | RED Star FC 93 | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 63.2% | 36.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.98 @ Betano
Draw3.92 @ Pinnacle
Away3.70 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.91 @ Betano
Under 2.51.98 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.78 @ Betano
No2.08 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
RED Star FC 93
vs
Guingamp
Expected goals
1.29
RED Star FC 93 xG
League Avg: 1.39
Total
2.82
1.53
Guingamp xG
League Avg: 1.19
1x2 probabilities
Home
32.0%
Draw
25.0%
Away
42.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
11.8%
Tip
0 - 1
9.1%
Tip
1 - 2
9.0%
More chances
1.5+
75%
Chance
2.5+
53%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
66%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): RED Star FC 93 = 1.30 (league 1.39), Guingamp = 1.53 (league 1.19)
| Guingamp | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| RED Star FC 93 | 0 | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.1% · Draw 25.0% · Away win 42.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1