Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:30 •
Estadio Municipal de El PlantÃo
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.50)
0.91 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6% | 31.2% | 31.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.7%
0 - 0
14.2%
1 - 1
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo La Coruna | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Burgos | 0 | 14.2% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.7% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Burgos +37.5, Deportivo La Coruna +3.3.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Burgos
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
Elo gapDeportivo La Coruna +11
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3192.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3192.5
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1573.3 | 1619.2 |
| Form Elo | 1595.1 | 1624.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.9 | 1573.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1481.6 | 1641.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1608.3 | 1589.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +37.5 | +3.3 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Burgos last-5 Elo change: +37.5; Deportivo La Coruna last-5 Elo change: +3.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 60% |
| Attack | 35% | 40% |
| Defense | 70% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 18 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Wins | 50% | 44% | 47% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Draws | 33% | 17% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Loses | 17% | 39% | 28% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
BurgosWDLDWDWLLWWWDWLLLWDLWWLWDDLWWDWWDWWL
Deportivo La CorunaWDDWWWDDLLDWWWWWLLLDDWLWWLWWLWWDWDDW
League goals
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 20 | 43 | 26 | 30 | 56 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 11 | 21 | 32 | 18 | 21 | 39 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 61% | 81% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 22% | 47% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 6% | 19% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 10 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 10 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Burgos | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 51.8% | 48.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.55 @ Unibet
Draw3.14 @ 1xBet
Away3.30 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.72 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.70 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.56 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Burgos
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
Expected goals
1.04
Burgos xG
League Avg: 1.50
Total
1.95
0.91
Deportivo La Coruna xG
League Avg: 1.12
1x2 probabilities
Home
37.6%
Draw
31.2%
Away
31.0%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
14.7%
Tip
0 - 0
14.2%
Tip
1 - 1
13.5%
More chances
1.5+
69%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
67%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 5
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Burgos = 1.04 (league 1.50), Deportivo La Coruna = 0.91 (league 1.12)
| Deportivo La Coruna | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Burgos | 0 | 14.2% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.7% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.6% · Draw 31.2% · Away win 31.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1