Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:30 •
Cherkasy Arena
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.22)
0.79 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.4% | 37.0% | 34.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
22.8%
0 - 1
18.1%
1 - 0
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| LNZ Cherkasy | 0 | 22.8% | 18.1% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: LNZ Cherkasy +38.5, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv +16.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
LNZ Cherkasy
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Elo gapLNZ Cherkasy +35
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3254.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3254.3
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1627.2 | 1627.1 |
| Form Elo | 1647.6 | 1650.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499.4 | 1553.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1495.5 | 1585.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1668.3 | 1664.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +38.5 | +16.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. LNZ Cherkasy last-5 Elo change: +38.5; Metalist 1925 Kharkiv last-5 Elo change: +16.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 87% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 50% | 100% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
52%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 58% | 75% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 50% |
| Draws | 17% | 8% | 13% | 25% | 42% | 33% |
| Loses | 25% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
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Metalist 1925 KharkivDLWWDWWDDLDLWDWDWWLWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 21 | 35 | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 8 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 33% | 67% | 42% |
| 1.5 | 46% | 17% | 33% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 8% | 17% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | LNZ Cherkasy | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 0% | 100% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.2% | 51.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.24 @ 1xBet
Draw2.90 @ 1xBet
Away3.40 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
LNZ Cherkasy
vs
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Expected goals
0.69
LNZ Cherkasy xG
League Avg: 1.22
Total
1.48
0.79
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv xG
League Avg: 1.15
1x2 probabilities
Home
28.4%
Draw
37.0%
Away
34.7%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
22.8%
Tip
0 - 1
18.1%
Tip
1 - 0
15.6%
More chances
1.5+
56%
Chance
2.5+
39%
Chance
3.5+
28%
Chance
BTTS
52%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): LNZ Cherkasy = 0.69 (league 1.22), Metalist 1925 Kharkiv = 0.79 (league 1.15)
| Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| LNZ Cherkasy | 0 | 22.8% | 18.1% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.4% · Draw 37.0% · Away win 34.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1