Premier League
— Russia
Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 14:30 •
Fisht Olympic Stadium
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.55)
1.52 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.6% | 25.4% | 44.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 1
10.2%
1 - 2
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Krylia Sovetov | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Sochi | 0 | 6.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: FC Sochi +16.2, Krylia Sovetov -4.3.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
FC Sochi
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Elo gapKrylia Sovetov +12
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo2851.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2851.9
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1402.7 | 1449.2 |
| Form Elo | 1402.8 | 1443 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1424.3 | 1452.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1463.3 | 1474.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1344.2 | 1360.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.2 | -4.3 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. FC Sochi last-5 Elo change: +16.2; Krylia Sovetov last-5 Elo change: -4.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 23% | 31% |
| Defense | 46% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 8% | 23% | 16% | 33% | 8% | 20% |
| Draws | 17% | 8% | 12% | 50% | 15% | 32% |
| Loses | 75% | 69% | 72% | 17% | 77% | 48% |
FC SochiLLLDLLLLLDWLWLLLDLLLLLLWW
Krylia SovetovDWWDLLDWLLLDLLDWLLLWLDLDD
League goals
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 13 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 26 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 25 | 28 | 53 | 15 | 30 | 45 |
| GA avg | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 84% | 64% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 68% | 32% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 40% | 4% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 16% | 4% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 2-4 | 2-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-1 | 0-6 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FC Sochi | Krylia Sovetov |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 35% | 65% |
| Total | 43.8% | 56.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.79 @ 1xBet
Draw3.21 @ 1xBet
Away2.89 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.32 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.71 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.87 @ Marathonbet
No1.85 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
FC Sochi
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Expected goals
1.19
FC Sochi xG
League Avg: 1.55
Total
2.70
1.52
Krylia Sovetov xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
29.6%
Draw
25.4%
Away
44.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
12.1%
Tip
0 - 1
10.2%
Tip
1 - 2
9.1%
More chances
1.5+
84%
Chance
2.5+
59%
Chance
3.5+
42%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): FC Sochi = 1.19 (league 1.55), Krylia Sovetov = 1.52 (league 1.11)
| Krylia Sovetov | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Sochi | 0 | 6.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.6% · Draw 25.4% · Away win 44.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1