Premier League
— Russia
Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 14:30 •
Gazovik Stadium
Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.55)
0.65 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.6% | 28.2% | 17.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.2%
0 - 0
13.5%
2 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Nizhny Novgorod | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Orenburg | 0 | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
FC Orenburg carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 86 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Orenburg +9.8, Nizhny Novgorod +1.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
FC Orenburg
vs
Nizhny Novgorod
Elo gapFC Orenburg +86
Home / draw / away49% / 20% / 31%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2860.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2860.6
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1455.6 | 1405 |
| Form Elo | 1460.4 | 1415.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.4 | 1430.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1487.2 | 1412.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1395.8 | 1396 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.8 | +1.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. FC Orenburg last-5 Elo change: +9.8; Nizhny Novgorod last-5 Elo change: +1.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 33% |
| Attack | 23% | 46% |
| Defense | 46% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 12 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 23% | 8% | 16% | 31% | 17% | 24% |
| Draws | 38% | 25% | 32% | 23% | 8% | 16% |
| Loses | 38% | 67% | 52% | 46% | 75% | 60% |
FC OrenburgDDLLWDDLLLLDLWLDLLWWLLDDL
Nizhny NovgorodLLLLWLLWLLLLDLDLWWLWWLLDD
League goals
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 11 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 15 | 22 | 37 | 15 | 25 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 84% | 48% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 36% | 28% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 20% | 8% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-2 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FC Orenburg | Nizhny Novgorod |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 48.0% | 52.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ 1xBet
Draw3.58 @ 1xBet
Away4.03 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.13 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.83 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ Marathonbet
No1.89 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
FC Orenburg
vs
Nizhny Novgorod
Expected goals
1.35
FC Orenburg xG
League Avg: 1.55
Total
2.01
0.65
Nizhny Novgorod xG
League Avg: 1.11
1x2 probabilities
Home
53.6%
Draw
28.2%
Away
17.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
18.2%
Tip
0 - 0
13.5%
Tip
2 - 0
12.4%
More chances
1.5+
70%
Chance
2.5+
49%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
63%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): FC Orenburg = 1.35 (league 1.55), Nizhny Novgorod = 0.65 (league 1.11)
| Nizhny Novgorod | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Orenburg | 0 | 13.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.6% · Draw 28.2% · Away win 17.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1