Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Edgar Street
Expected Goals
2.72 (league 1.56)
1.46 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.2% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
7.5%
1 - 1
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Peterborough Sports | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hereford | 0 | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Hereford carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 85 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hereford +14.3, Peterborough Sports -40.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Hereford
vs
Peterborough Sports
Elo gapHereford +85
Home / draw / away49% / 20% / 31%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2895.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2895.8
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1472.7 | 1423.1 |
| Form Elo | 1461.5 | 1399.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1490.1 | 1450.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1556.5 | 1464.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1428 | 1323.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.3 | -40.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Hereford last-5 Elo change: +14.3; Peterborough Sports last-5 Elo change: -40.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 7% |
| Attack | 48% | 29% |
| Defense | 76% | 10% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 19 | 3.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 21 | 23 | 44 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 38% | 22% | 30% | 26% | 18% | 22% |
| Draws | 14% | 26% | 20% | 26% | 9% | 18% |
| Loses | 48% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 73% | 60% |
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Peterborough SportsLLDLLWLLWDLLWWLLLWWLLLDDLWWWLDDLLLLLLWDLLDLLL
League goals
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 25 | 60 | 25 | 24 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 35 | 41 | 76 | 38 | 56 | 94 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 84% | 60% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 59% | 36% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 18% | 11% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 9% | 2% | 18% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 9% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 18 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-1 | 0-5 | 8-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hereford | Peterborough Sports |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 91% | 9% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 74.0% | 26.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Hereford
vs
Peterborough Sports
Expected goals
2.72
Hereford xG
League Avg: 1.56
Total
4.18
1.46
Peterborough Sports xG
League Avg: 1.28
1x2 probabilities
Home
58.2%
Draw
17.1%
Away
18.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
8.3%
Tip
3 - 1
7.5%
Tip
1 - 1
6.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
67%
Chance
3.5+
48%
Chance
BTTS
75%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Hereford = 2.72 (league 1.56), Peterborough Sports = 1.46 (league 1.28)
| Peterborough Sports | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hereford | 0 | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.2% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 18.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1