Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Haig Avenue
Expected Goals
1.53 (league 1.56)
1.86 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.5% | 22.3% | 44.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.6%
1 - 2
8.9%
2 - 1
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| AFC Telford United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Southport | 0 | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
AFC Telford United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Southport +28.8, AFC Telford United -34.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Southport
vs
AFC Telford United
Elo gapAFC Telford United +20
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3080
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3080
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1512.6 | 1567.4 |
| Form Elo | 1532.3 | 1548.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1477.2 | 1518.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1530.1 | 1715.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1472.8 | 1546.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.8 | -34.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Southport last-5 Elo change: +28.8; AFC Telford United last-5 Elo change: -34.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 33% |
| Attack | 38% | 38% |
| Defense | 57% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 32% | 36% | 34% | 48% | 27% | 38% |
| Draws | 41% | 14% | 27% | 26% | 36% | 31% |
| Loses | 27% | 50% | 39% | 26% | 36% | 31% |
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AFC Telford UnitedDDLLDWWLLLWDWLDLDWDDWWWLWWWWLWDDDWLWLDWLDLLWD
League goals
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 26 | 61 | 47 | 38 | 85 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 30 | 39 | 69 | 30 | 33 | 63 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Southport | AFC Telford United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 84% | 89% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 48% | 53% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 16% | 27% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 0-8 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-0 | 2-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Southport | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 56.3% | 43.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Southport
vs
AFC Telford United
Expected goals
1.53
Southport xG
League Avg: 1.56
Total
3.40
1.86
AFC Telford United xG
League Avg: 1.28
1x2 probabilities
Home
31.5%
Draw
22.3%
Away
44.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.6%
Tip
1 - 2
8.9%
Tip
2 - 1
7.3%
More chances
1.5+
89%
Chance
2.5+
63%
Chance
3.5+
45%
Chance
BTTS
78%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Southport = 1.53 (league 1.56), AFC Telford United = 1.86 (league 1.28)
| AFC Telford United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Southport | 0 | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.5% · Draw 22.3% · Away win 44.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1