Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 16:30 •
Flyeralarm Arena
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.55)
0.58 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.1% | 15.2% | 7.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.6%
1 - 0
12.3%
3 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Bayreuth | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Würzburger Kickers | 0 | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Würzburger Kickers carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 190 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Würzburger Kickers +22.5, Bayreuth +5.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Würzburger Kickers
vs
Bayreuth
Elo gapWürzburger Kickers +190
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo3165.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3165.1
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1659.9 | 1505.2 |
| Form Elo | 1679.6 | 1525 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1551.8 | 1503.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1675.4 | 1555.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1686.1 | 1471 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.5 | +5.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Würzburger Kickers last-5 Elo change: +22.5; Bayreuth last-5 Elo change: +5.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 47% |
| Attack | 88% | 41% |
| Defense | 82% | 59% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 71% | 53% | 62% | 47% | 14% | 31% |
| Draws | 21% | 33% | 28% | 13% | 50% | 31% |
| Loses | 7% | 13% | 10% | 40% | 36% | 38% |
Würzburger KickersWWDWLLWDWDWWDWDWWDWLWDWWDWWWW
BayreuthWLDWDWDLLDLLDDWLLLLWDWDWLLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 32 | 24 | 56 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 12 | 9 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 42 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 55% | 66% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 7% | 38% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 7% | 7% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 66.67% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 33.33% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | 1-0 | 1-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Würzburger Kickers | Bayreuth |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 68% | 32% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 66.0% | 34.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Würzburger Kickers
vs
Bayreuth
Expected goals
2.38
Würzburger Kickers xG
League Avg: 1.55
Total
2.96
0.58
Bayreuth xG
League Avg: 1.39
1x2 probabilities
Home
74.1%
Draw
15.2%
Away
7.3%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
14.6%
Tip
1 - 0
12.3%
Tip
3 - 0
11.6%
More chances
1.5+
77%
Chance
2.5+
54%
Chance
3.5+
39%
Chance
BTTS
70%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Würzburger Kickers = 2.38 (league 1.55), Bayreuth = 0.58 (league 1.39)
| Bayreuth | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Würzburger Kickers | 0 | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 74.1% · Draw 15.2% · Away win 7.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1