Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:15 •
Sportanlage Stettiner Straße
Expected Goals
1.69 (league 1.96)
0.76 (league 1.70)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.7% | 23.9% | 16.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.5%
2 - 0
12.3%
1 - 1
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Nordmark Satrup | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Union Neumünster | 0 | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.3% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Union Neumünster carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 85 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Union Neumünster +3.7, Nordmark Satrup +10.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Union Neumünster
vs
Nordmark Satrup
Elo gapUnion Neumünster +85
Home / draw / away49% / 20% / 31%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3061.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3061.3
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1555.5 | 1505.8 |
| Form Elo | 1554.5 | 1513.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1549 | 1486.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1707.4 | 1519.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1482.1 | 1527.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.7 | +10.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Union Neumünster last-5 Elo change: +3.7; Nordmark Satrup last-5 Elo change: +10.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 71% | 29% |
| Defense | 29% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 50% | 31% | 40% | 50% | 27% | 39% |
| Draws | 8% | 31% | 20% | 17% | 18% | 17% |
| Loses | 42% | 38% | 40% | 33% | 55% | 43% |
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Nordmark SatrupLLLLLWWWDWWLLLWLWDLWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 27 | 53 | 21 | 11 | 32 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 15 | 33 | 48 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 76% | 74% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 68% | 56% | 26% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 32% | 17% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 16% | 13% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 8% | 9% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-5 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Union Neumünster | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 82% | 18% |
| Total | 59.6% | 40.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Union Neumünster
vs
Nordmark Satrup
Expected goals
1.69
Union Neumünster xG
League Avg: 1.96
Total
2.45
0.76
Nordmark Satrup xG
League Avg: 1.70
1x2 probabilities
Home
58.7%
Draw
23.9%
Away
16.7%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
14.5%
Tip
2 - 0
12.3%
Tip
1 - 1
11.1%
More chances
1.5+
91%
Chance
2.5+
64%
Chance
3.5+
46%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Union Neumünster = 1.69 (league 1.96), Nordmark Satrup = 0.76 (league 1.70)
| Nordmark Satrup | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Union Neumünster | 0 | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.3% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.7% · Draw 23.9% · Away win 16.7%
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