Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
BZA Süd-Ost
Expected Goals
2.25 (league 1.74)
2.60 (league 1.31)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.9% | 18.4% | 42.2% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.7%
1 - 2
6.0%
2 - 3
5.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Kornburg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ingolstadt II | 0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Ingolstadt II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ingolstadt II -8.7, Kornburg +8.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Ingolstadt II
vs
Kornburg
Elo gapIngolstadt II +40
Home / draw / away42% / 26% / 32%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3047.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3047.7
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1526.1 | 1521.6 |
| Form Elo | 1514.2 | 1524.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1513.8 | 1518.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1655.6 | 1566 |
| Defense Elo | 1489.4 | 1496 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.7 | +8.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ingolstadt II last-5 Elo change: -8.7; Kornburg last-5 Elo change: +8.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 62% | 85% |
| Defense | 15% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 50% | 36% | 43% | 36% | 29% | 32% |
| Draws | 14% | 21% | 18% | 29% | 57% | 43% |
| Loses | 36% | 43% | 39% | 36% | 14% | 25% |
Ingolstadt IILDWLWWLDWWDWLWLLWWDWDLWLLWLL
KornburgDWDLDWDLWDLDWDLWDLLWDDDWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 37 | 20 | 57 | 20 | 25 | 45 |
| GF avg | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 26 | 20 | 46 | 17 | 21 | 38 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 79% | 82% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% | 43% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 29% | 14% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 11% | 11% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 0% | 11% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 4-0 | 1-4 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ingolstadt II | Kornburg |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 39% | 61% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 41% | 59% |
| Total | 39.0% | 61.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Ingolstadt II
vs
Kornburg
Expected goals
2.25
Ingolstadt II xG
League Avg: 1.74
Total
4.85
2.60
Kornburg xG
League Avg: 1.31
1x2 probabilities
Home
31.9%
Draw
18.4%
Away
42.2%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 2
6.7%
Tip
1 - 2
6.0%
Tip
2 - 3
5.8%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
72%
Chance
3.5+
51%
Chance
BTTS
80%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Ingolstadt II = 2.25 (league 1.74), Kornburg = 2.60 (league 1.31)
| Kornburg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ingolstadt II | 0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.9% · Draw 18.4% · Away win 42.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1