Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Ząbkovia Ząbki

III Liga - Group 1 — Poland

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Not Started

home	draw	away
45.0%	18.3%	29.4%

		Ząbkovia Ząbki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki	0	0.8%	1.8%	1.9%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%
1	2.2%	4.7%	5.0%	3.6%	1.9%	0.8%
2	3.0%	6.3%	6.7%	4.7%	2.5%	1.1%
3	2.6%	5.6%	5.9%	4.2%	2.2%	0.9%
4	1.7%	3.7%	3.9%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%
5	0.9%	2.0%	2.1%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%

Home strong edge

Lechia T. Mazowiecki carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 93 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lechia T. Mazowiecki +21.7, Ząbkovia Ząbki -62.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Lechia T. Mazowiecki Elo 1520.3 · +21.7

Ząbkovia Ząbki Elo 1462.2 · -62.5

Elo gapLechia T. Mazowiecki +93

Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%

Expected home share63%

Combined Elo2982.5

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2982.5

Elo home share 63%

Match tone Tactical Watch

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	Ząbkovia Ząbki
Overall Elo	1520.3	1462.2
Form Elo	1539.7	1414.6
Home / Away Elo	1517.6	1483.2
Attack Elo	1658.7	1627.4
Defense Elo	1437	1385.1
Last 5 Elo change	+21.7	-62.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lechia T. Mazowiecki last-5 Elo change: +21.7; Ząbkovia Ząbki last-5 Elo change: -62.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	Ząbkovia Ząbki
Played	5	5
Form	67%	7%
Attack	53%	21%
Defense	68%	21%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	4 \| 0.8
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	15 \| 3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

79%

FT probability

3.5+

56%

FT probability

BTTS

88%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

0-0

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki			Ząbkovia Ząbki
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	13	14	27	14	13	27
Wins	38%	43%	41%	57%	31%	44%
Draws	23%	21%	22%	0%	23%	11%
Loses	38%	36%	37%	43%	46%	44%

Lechia T. MazowieckiLDWWLLWLWDLLWLDLWLWWDDLWWWD

Ząbkovia ZąbkiWWLWWWWWDWWWLLWDWLLLLLLLLLD

League goals

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki			Ząbkovia Ząbki
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	29	26	55	33	29	62
GF avg	2.2	1.9	2.0	2.4	2.2	2.3
GA total	18	24	42	22	29	51
GA avg	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.6	2.2	1.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Lechia T. Mazowiecki		Ząbkovia Ząbki
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	89%	89%	81%	96%
1.5	44%	48%	59%	52%
2.5	37%	15%	30%	33%
3.5	15%	4%	26%	7%
4.5	11%	0%	22%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki			Ząbkovia Ząbki
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	2	3	1	0	1
Failed to score	1	2	3	3	2	5

Penalties

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	Ząbkovia Ząbki
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	1

Streaks

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	Ząbkovia Ząbki
Wins	3	5
Draws	2	1
Losses	2	9

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	7-1	2-5	6-2	1-5
Biggest losses	1-3	4-1	1-4	4-0
Goals For	7	5	6	6
Goals Against	3	4	4	4

Model comparison

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	Ząbkovia Ząbki
Form	91%	9%
Att	71%	29%
Def	71%	29%
Poisson Distribution	55%	45%
H2h	0%	100%
Goals	33%	67%
Total	64.2%	35.8%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Ząbkovia Ząbki

footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Ząbkovia Ząbki

III Liga - Group 1 • Poland • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Expected goals

2.66

Lechia T. Mazowiecki xG League Avg: 1.82

Total

4.78

2.12

Ząbkovia Ząbki xG League Avg: 1.45

1x2 probabilities

Home

45.0%

Draw

18.3%

Away

29.4%

Best score tips

Tip

2 - 2

6.7%

Tip

2 - 1

6.3%

Tip

3 - 2

5.9%

More chances

1.5+

95%

Chance

2.5+

79%

Chance

3.5+

56%

Chance

BTTS

88%

Chance

🟨 Cards

0 - 0

Exp.

#LechiaTMazowiecki #ZąbkoviaZąbki #IiiLigaGroup1 #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Lechia T. Mazowiecki = 2.66 (league 1.82), Ząbkovia Ząbki = 2.12 (league 1.45)

		Ząbkovia Ząbki
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Lechia T. Mazowiecki	0	0.8%	1.8%	1.9%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%
	1	2.2%	4.7%	5.0%	3.6%	1.9%	0.8%
	2	3.0%	6.3%	6.7%	4.7%	2.5%	1.1%
	3	2.6%	5.6%	5.9%	4.2%	2.2%	0.9%
	4	1.7%	3.7%	3.9%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%
	5	0.9%	2.0%	2.1%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.0% · Draw 18.3% · Away win 29.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	Ząbkovia Ząbki
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	1 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	1

Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Ząbkovia Ząbki