Stargard Szczeciński vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz

III Liga - Group 2 — Poland

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Stadion Miejski

Not Started

home	draw	away
14.7%	19.3%	63.6%

		Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Stargard Szczeciński	0	4.6%	9.9%	10.7%	7.8%	4.2%	1.8%
1	4.2%	9.1%	9.9%	7.1%	3.9%	1.7%
2	1.9%	4.2%	4.5%	3.3%	1.8%	0.8%
3	0.6%	1.3%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
5	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Away strong edge

Zawisza Bydgoszcz carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 141 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Stargard Szczeciński -41.9, Zawisza Bydgoszcz +29.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Stargard Szczeciński Elo 1476.2 · -41.9

Zawisza Bydgoszcz Elo 1651.9 · +29.6

Elo gapZawisza Bydgoszcz +141

Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%

Expected home share31%

Combined Elo3128.1

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Away strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3128.1

Elo home share 31%

Match tone Heavy Favorite

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński	Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Overall Elo	1476.2	1651.9
Form Elo	1450.1	1670
Home / Away Elo	1490.4	1555.7
Attack Elo	1611.6	1701.5
Defense Elo	1438.6	1660.2
Last 5 Elo change	-41.9	+29.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Stargard Szczeciński last-5 Elo change: -41.9; Zawisza Bydgoszcz last-5 Elo change: +29.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński	Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Played	5	5
Form	7%	100%
Attack	60%	100%
Defense	0%	80%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	11 \| 2.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	14 \| 2.8	2 \| 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%

FT probability

2.5+

61%

FT probability

3.5+

44%

FT probability

BTTS

71%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński			Zawisza Bydgoszcz
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	13	14	27	14	13	27
Wins	31%	36%	33%	86%	54%	70%
Draws	23%	21%	22%	14%	23%	19%
Loses	46%	43%	44%	0%	23%	11%

Stargard SzczecińskiLLWWWWWDDLLDWDLWDLLWWLLLDLL

Zawisza BydgoszczWWWWDWDWWLWLDWWLWDWWWDWWWWW

League goals

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński			Zawisza Bydgoszcz
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	22	21	43	36	22	58
GF avg	1.7	1.5	1.6	2.6	1.7	2.1
GA total	23	23	46	6	12	18
GA avg	1.8	1.6	1.7	0.4	0.9	0.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Stargard Szczeciński		Zawisza Bydgoszcz
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	78%	85%	89%	44%
1.5	48%	48%	52%	22%
2.5	26%	30%	33%	0%
3.5	7%	7%	22%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	11%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński			Zawisza Bydgoszcz
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	2	2	4	9	6	15
Failed to score	3	3	6	0	3	3

Penalties

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński	Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Scored (total \| %)	3 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	3	2

Streaks

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński	Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Wins	5	4
Draws	2	1
Losses	3	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-0	1-4	5-0	2-7
Biggest losses	1-4	3-0	—	2-1
Goals For	4	4	5	7
Goals Against	4	4	2	2

Model comparison

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński	Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Form	6%	94%
Att	35%	65%
Def	13%	88%
Poisson Distribution	32%	68%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	58%	42%
Total	32.3%	67.8%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Stargard Szczeciński vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz

footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Stargard Szczeciński

Zawisza Bydgoszcz

III Liga - Group 2 • Poland • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Stadion Miejski

Expected goals

0.92

Stargard Szczeciński xG League Avg: 1.67

Total

3.08

2.17

Zawisza Bydgoszcz xG League Avg: 1.41

1x2 probabilities

Home

14.7%

Draw

19.3%

Away

63.6%

Best score tips

Tip

0 - 2

10.7%

Tip

0 - 1

9.9%

Tip

1 - 2

9.9%

More chances

1.5+

87%

Chance

2.5+

61%

Chance

3.5+

44%

Chance

BTTS

71%

Chance

🟨 Cards

—

Exp.

#StargardSzczeciński #ZawiszaBydgoszcz #IiiLigaGroup2 #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Stargard Szczeciński = 0.92 (league 1.67), Zawisza Bydgoszcz = 2.17 (league 1.41)

		Zawisza Bydgoszcz
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Stargard Szczeciński	0	4.6%	9.9%	10.7%	7.8%	4.2%	1.8%
	1	4.2%	9.1%	9.9%	7.1%	3.9%	1.7%
	2	1.9%	4.2%	4.5%	3.3%	1.8%	0.8%
	3	0.6%	1.3%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
	4	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
	5	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 14.7% · Draw 19.3% · Away win 63.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	Stargard Szczeciński	Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Scored (total \| %)	3 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	3	2

Stargard Szczeciński vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz