Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadion ul. Loretańska
Expected Goals
2.41 (league 1.64)
1.15 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.5% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.5%
2 - 0
8.2%
1 - 1
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Starowice Dolne | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SKRA Częstochowa | 0 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
SKRA Częstochowa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 161 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SKRA Częstochowa +25.4, Starowice Dolne -8.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
SKRA Częstochowa
vs
Starowice Dolne
Elo gapSKRA Częstochowa +161
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo2975.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2975.8
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1551 | 1424.8 |
| Form Elo | 1557.2 | 1418.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1536.5 | 1493.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1577.7 | 1404.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1447.7 | 1320.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.4 | -8.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. SKRA Częstochowa last-5 Elo change: +25.4; Starowice Dolne last-5 Elo change: -8.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 33% |
| Attack | 77% | 46% |
| Defense | 62% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 54% | 43% | 48% | 15% | 23% | 19% |
| Draws | 23% | 36% | 30% | 8% | 38% | 23% |
| Loses | 23% | 21% | 22% | 77% | 38% | 58% |
SKRA CzęstochowaDDLDWDWDLWWDWWLDWLLWDWWWWLW
Starowice DolneLWLLDWDLDLLLLLLWLDLLWDWLDL
League goals
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 26 | 54 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 21 | 25 | 46 | 34 | 23 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 81% | 58% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 59% | 48% | 23% | 62% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 26% | 8% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 11% | 0% | 23% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 4% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 1-4 | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-7 | 7-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | SKRA Częstochowa | Starowice Dolne |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 69.2% | 31.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
SKRA Częstochowa
vs
Starowice Dolne
Expected goals
2.41
SKRA Częstochowa xG
League Avg: 1.64
Total
3.56
1.15
Starowice Dolne xG
League Avg: 1.39
1x2 probabilities
Home
61.5%
Draw
18.2%
Away
16.5%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
9.5%
Tip
2 - 0
8.2%
Tip
1 - 1
7.9%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
67%
Chance
3.5+
48%
Chance
BTTS
72%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): SKRA Częstochowa = 2.44 (league 1.63), Starowice Dolne = 1.14 (league 1.40)
| Starowice Dolne | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SKRA Częstochowa | 0 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.1% · Draw 17.9% · Away win 16.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1